Can Ukraine defeat Russia in Crimea?

I asked ChatBGT if Ukraine can defeat Russia in Crimea. Here is the AI answer. Using AI can be a trusted source if the user can verify and validate the answer.

"That’s a big and very complex question. Whether Ukraine can defeat Russia in Crimea depends on what “defeat” means—military liberation, political control, or forcing Russia to withdraw. Let me break it down:

1. Military Realities

• Russia’s Position: Crimea is heavily fortified. Russia has built multiple defensive lines (trenches, minefields, fortifications), deployed advanced air defenses (S-400 systems), and stationed a large naval presence in Sevastopol. It also treats Crimea as strategically vital—both militarily (the Black Sea Fleet, a logistics hub) and symbolically.

• Ukraine’s Capabilities: Ukraine has had successes striking deep into Crimea with drones, missiles (like Storm Shadow/SCALP), and sabotage operations. It has damaged parts of the Black Sea Fleet and disrupted logistics via the Kerch Bridge and land routes. However, a full-scale amphibious or land assault would be extraordinarily costly without overwhelming Western-supplied long-range weapons, airpower, and naval dominance—things Ukraine doesn’t currently have.

2. Political & Strategic Factors

• For Russia: Losing Crimea would be a massive blow to Putin’s legitimacy. Moscow may escalate militarily, possibly even hinting at nuclear threats, if it sees Crimea at risk.

• For Ukraine: Crimea is not just territory but a powerful symbol. Retaking it is a stated war goal, though Ukraine also knows this could require a prolonged strategy—military pressure plus diplomatic/economic isolation of Russia.

• Western Support: Ukraine’s ability to challenge Russia in Crimea depends on continued Western aid (weapons, intelligence, economic support). If aid weakens, so does Ukraine’s leverage.

3. Possible Paths to Defeat Russia in Crimea

• Military Pressure + Attrition: Continued strikes on infrastructure, supply lines, and the Black Sea Fleet could make Crimea increasingly costly and difficult for Russia to hold.

• Blockade & Isolation: Cutting off the Kerch Bridge and land corridors could slowly strangle Russian forces in Crimea.

• Negotiated Withdrawal: Unlikely in the near term, but sustained pressure could one day force Russia into talks where Crimea’s status is contested.

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📌 Bottom line:
Ukraine is unlikely to retake Crimea through a rapid, direct military offensive under current conditions. However, it can make Russia’s hold on Crimea weaker and more precarious through long-range strikes, sabotage, and attrition. Whether that eventually leads to “defeat” in Crimea depends heavily on Western support, Russian political stability, and how long the war drags on."

Image: AI Overview

Trump’s Best Possible Putin Play

Putin and Russia want to take over Ukraine and have tried to do so by military force. Russia has secured some land, including Crimea. Ukraine has held its ground, losing some territory but never giving up the fight. Ukraine received support from NATO allies, including the US.

 

What do Trump and the US have to offer as incentives for Russia to give back certain territory?

 

First, the Russian economy would benefit greatly from the lifting of sanctions on petroleum and other valuable metals exports. Removing specific sanctions would help Europeans and the global market, as oil prices would likely decrease due to increased production.

 

Trump must negotiate on Ukraine’s behalf to regain half of Crimea. He must also push for free, supervised elections in disputed territories where the results would be accepted and not contested.

 

Trump must not give up Ukraine’s right to join NATO. He should support a united European military defense for countries bordering Russia.

 

Economic incentives are what Trump can offer, along with measures to reduce Russia’s costs in continuing the war against Ukraine. 

Image Credit: Axios
https://www.axios.com/2025/08/13/zelensky-trump-putin-summit-ukraine

Accommodation not Deportation

There remain over eleven million people in the US who are classified as illegal because their work visas are deficient. The US does not have the resources to deport that many people, even if we wished. The benefits of that group far outweigh the costs and problems. We can debate that with facts.

America was founded on "we immigrants," as that is our heritage. We believe in human rights, which include the right to mobility. The current regime has undermined the rule of law and the Constitution. It is null and void on that basis.
Since Congress and the Judicial Branch are failing to rein in the insurgent government, the last institutions standing are the media and the military. Think about the possible outcomes going forward. Where are the true patriots who will rescue us from this mess?
Cartoon for Feb. 21, 2017.
Steve Benson/The Republic 1 day ago, James A. George American politics • government

What About Immigrants?

 What About Immigrants?

Every American has immigrant roots—we are an immigrant nation, filled with diversity of all sorts.

Laws and regulations govern the process of admission. Our process became overrun by a lack of capacity to give timely attention to immigrants. That is not the immigrant’s fault. It is the fault of Congress and the President, who failed to budget and appropriate properly.

Immigrants are an essential part of the US workforce. Working immigrants don’t steal jobs; they fulfil a need. They pay taxes and add to economic growth and prosperity. Their benefit outweighs the burden.

The US Constitution Article 14 ensures birthrights for people born in the USA.

The Trump Administration and the Corrupted Republican Congress are in violation of US Laws and Regulations and International Agreements. The Court is also corrupted and democracy and freedom are no longer assured.

The US is a signatory to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights:

       Article 1

All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights. They are endowed with reason and conscience and should act towards one another in a spirit of brotherhood.

Article 2

Everyone is entitled to all the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration, without distinction of any kind, such as race, colour, sex, language, religion, political or other opinion, national or social origin, property, birth or other status. Furthermore, no distinction shall be made on the basis of the political, jurisdictional or international status of the country or territory to which a person belongs, whether it be independent, trust, non-self-governing or under any other limitation of sovereignty.

Article 3

Everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of person.

Article 4

No one shall be held in slavery or servitude; slavery and the slave trade shall be prohibited in all their forms.

Article 5

No one shall be subjected to torture or to cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment.

Article 6

Everyone has the right to recognition everywhere as a person before the law.

Article 7

All are equal before the law and are entitled without any discrimination to equal protection of the law. All are entitled to equal protection against any discrimination in violation of this Declaration and against any incitement to such discrimination.

Article 8

Everyone has the right to an effective remedy by the competent national tribunals for acts violating the fundamental rights granted him by the constitution or by law.

Article 9

No one shall be subjected to arbitrary arrest, detention or exile.

Article 10

Everyone is entitled in full equality to a fair and public hearing by an independent and impartial tribunal, in the determination of his rights and obligations and of any criminal charge against him.

Who do You Trust?

From multiple reliable sources and eyewitnesses, it appears that President Trump remains combative with his own administration and divisive Congress, as well as the Courts. He appears as a one-man band who is corrupted and compromised on all fronts. Who can believe him? Who can trust him? Do you?

Ask me questions and I will discuss.

Foreseen, Predictable, Unfolding Disaster

Many Americans, over half, including the Democratic Congress, foresaw a weak administration, lacking experience in top positions, a cadre of loyal tv celebrities, chosen by the President to go along with his authoritarian style. The results would be chaos from not following the rule of law and deviating from Constitutional norms, unchecked by the Republican majority. The hour is upon the nation where Trump holds the cards and the lives of 40,000 soldiers in his command as he ponders striking Iran’s core nuclear facility because Israel cannot do the job. 

Well, maybe they can, though it will take longer. Maybe Israel alone can knock off the Ayatollah. Then what. Iran will not be leaderless in chaos, as the Iranians would cope with producing new ones. In a nation state in which people have been deprived of autonomy for a long time, regime change will not be automatic. In a war-torn nation with many terrorist proxies at large, there is no knock-out punch. 

Supporting Israel’s efforts to degrade and destroy Iran’s nuclear capability is in the cards. The question is, does the Trump government have the capability to guide and lead the process?

New York Magazine

Follow Me!

 Tomorrow, June 14, I will celebrate the 250th Anniversary of the US Army, to which I once belonged. Probably, soldiers would prefer to have the day off, except their commander-in-chief wants to exploit the event to celebrate his birthday.

Since authoritarian Trump has absconded with our freedom and right to protest, we will remind him that We the People do not want him as our King. We would like him to do his work humbly, though that is impossible. 

Rejoice as we reject a king and embrace the US Army. Follow Me!