In the year 2020, the world embarked on a new decade, shaped by a global pandemic. For years, scientists and health professionals were aware of the impending possibility as they grappled to control viral strains that threatened a widening population. The government invested collaboratively and independently to comprehend the danger. Though people and their governments often dither, and their planning is deficient. It is hard to elevate the priority with many competing demands for scarce resources. Nothing less than panic will do.
I ponder the value, roles, responsibilities, and opportunities for people in shaping a good life for all. I addressed aspects of this topic as elements of How to Select an American President by James A. George and James A. Rodger ©2017 and Regenerating America with Sustainable Economics by James A. George and James A. Rodger ©2017. This book focuses on people as individuals and their place in communities.
I embrace the discipline of cultural anthropology to guide this effort.
“cultural anthropology. Noun. The definition of cultural anthropology is the study of past and present societies and the language, traditions, customs, and behavior that are both similar and different from one to another.”
Three branches are archaeology, anthropological linguistics, and ethnology.
Characteristics of culture:
1. status;
2. relationships;
3. values and norms defined by cultural needs;
4. beliefs and attitudes;
5. mental processing and learning defined by how people organize and process information; and
6. work habits and practices
My lifetime experience includes an education in business and operations research, information technology, and executive management in Fortune 500 Companies and as an entrepreneur. I worked for very large consulting firms (PriceWaterhouseCoopers and ManTech International) with engagement with the US Department of Defense and Health and Human Services. I have been a journalist as National Politics Examiner for Clarity Media’s Examiner, and CBS News as well as an independent author. I developed and instructed courses for the University of California Berkeley Worldwide with engagements in Japan and Korea and with students from Mainland China (Bao Steel Corporation).
One observation is a pervasive obsession throughout my career, and that is America has no articulated industrial policy. There is an exception in that the US Department of Defense has an Office of Industrial Policy and there is the National Defense Industrial Association that advocate policy. There is no government-led aspirational goal that transcends generations. Instead, our American society is driven by individual entrepreneurs who are capitalists. As such, entrepreneurs and investors seem to be bounded by their personal life cycles and lack a long view.
“The NDIA Policy team monitors, advocates for, and educates government stakeholders on, policy matters of importance to the defense industrial base. Our mission is to ensure a viable, competitive national technology and industrial base, strengthen the government-industry partnership through dialogue, and provide interaction between the legislative, executive, and judicial branches. The Policy team also represents NDIA in several inter-association groups representing the defense industry and the government contracting community including the Council of Defense and Space Industry Associations (CODSIA), the Acquisition Reform Working Group (ARWG), and the Industry Logistics Coalition (ILC). Over the past three years, the Policy team has led NDIA’s Acquisition Reform Initiative. This effort has provided legislative recommendations to assist Congressional acquisition reform efforts, many of which were enacted or influenced final provisions in the Fiscal Year 2016 and Fiscal Year 2017 National Defense Authorization Acts. Policy staff regularly meets with key policy stakeholders and manages Congressional interaction with NDIA Chapters and Divisions.”
This organization is the heart of the “US Military Industrial Complex” as defined by former President Dwight David Eisenhour. That characterizes the NDIA’s policy viewpoint. What offsets or balances the view from a citizen-consumer perspective?
While the lifecycles of business entities are relatively short, the life of governments and nations is exceedingly long in perpetuity. Only when leaders take the long view can the population realize security they need for their time and that of future generations.
There are two dominant ideologies present in America:
1. Free-market capitalism will chart the way forward, driven by consumer demand
2. Government leadership is necessary to balance economic, social and environmental responsibilities.
One group believes in a limited government role, while the other believes that government has a prominent role in ensuring a good life for all. A caveat is a third dimension and that is national security on which the nation depends for military protection. Practically, all three work in balance and are not mutually exclusive.
I believe that the Bill of Rights and the US Constitution are aligned with a government leadership role and that the capitalist model requires mitigating. I argued that capitalism is unsustainable as we know it because the planet will not support an ever-expanding population and natural resources are scarce and limited. A sustainable economic model is needed with new rules.
Transgression against minorities in America is evidence of the need for improvement as is the persistence of poverty. The work of government and society is unfinished until the Universal Declaration of Human Rights is fully supported throughout America and its states.
The scope of necessary change transcends the span from local to Federal government and beyond to the international relationships under the rule of law.
“Rule of law is a principle under which all persons, institutions, and entities are accountable to laws that are: Publicly promulgated. Equally enforced. Independently adjudicated. And consistent with international human rights principles.”
How is international law enforced?
“International law differs from domestic law. In the United States, the federal and state governments enforce domestic American law. However, in terms of international law, no government or international organization enforces international law. Although the United Nations Security Council may pass measures authorizing enforcement, the enforcement entity envisioned (Art. 43) to carry out such measures never materialized due to the failure of member states to provide the necessary resources (such as troops). (An enforcement body should not be confused with existing United Nations peacekeeping forces, whose function is to maintain peace and security, not to enforce breaches of international law.)
How are international disputes resolved?
International disputes sometimes result in armed conflict between states, despite the prohibition of aggressive force (meaning, force not used in self-defense) (United Nations Charter, Art. 2(4)). However, most disputes between states are settled peacefully. Pacific settlement is often reached by diplomatic means, whereby states voluntarily comply with international law amidst pressure from other states. Another peaceful settlement mechanism is submission of the matter by the disputing states to an international tribunal, court, or arbitration.”
My initiative is not passive or academic research, as the purpose is to calibrate understanding about the role of people among Earth’s humanity with the aspiration to help individuals achieve their highest yield and best return on their innate abilities. It addresses the question, “what are people to do,” to be self-sustainable and to make their best contributions.
In the American democracy, individuals act independently to decide their direction. However, individuals operate under significant constraints that are not always to their choosing. The role of government is to ensure a fair and equal beginning, with the opportunity to exercise individual decisions and to act on their innate abilities.
Consistent with the idea of an “Optimized Sustainment Model,” this book addresses people as being the atomic level of society development. The idea begins with individuals becoming self-sufficient as soon as they are able. That acknowledges the obvious fact that children are dependent on adults until they can become independently sustainable.
People are born into status. Their parents set the foundation as do relationships. When the foundation is weak, children are vulnerable, and their abilities and capacities are constrained. I will discuss the necessity for forms of assistance to mitigate shortcomings that result in inequality and unfairness.
Taking that approach, I immediately wade into assertions of value and assessments that make my authorship less than scientific, and more analytical and creative advocacy. Unapologetically, I ponder, at what point in a child’s learning should they be instructed about the value of human beings. In my opinion, one of the most helpful human inventions is the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR).
“The Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR) is a milestone document in human rights history. Drafted by representatives with different legal and cultural backgrounds from all regions of the world, the Declaration was proclaimed by the United Nations General Assembly in Paris on 10 December 1948 (General Assembly resolution 217 A) as a common standard of achievements for all peoples and all nations. It sets out, for the first time, fundamental human rights to be universally protected and it has been translated into over 500 languages.”
While it may be blasphemous to some, I believe that the UDHR is superior foundation on which to guide human development and governance. It may well trump any other such invention, whether it be religion or government. I will defend that belief.
The reason why some re averse to acknowledging a “higher authority” is because they do not want to subordinate national sovereignty. That will be an ongoing struggle as the citizens of our small planet learn to cooperate on a global scale.
Misguided politicians have exploited citizen ignorance regarding this topic. It is easy to fuel divisiveness and to exploit intolerance. Under the US Constitution in the context of the UDHR, such political transgression must be called out and confronted as it undermines the peace and national security. It is not the act of different opinions that is the problem. Problems stem from how differences are debated and settled, under the rule of law.
The US Constitution and Bill of Rights are compatible with the UDHR, though the implementation of the US Political System is consistently deficient in carrying out the ideals.
Witnessed in 2020 are violations of human rights of black Americans via police brutality and murder of citizens. Also witnessed is alarming race bating by Donald Trump, the President of the United States, his disciples and members of the Republican Party. These circumstances warrant the necessity in writing this book.
Believe me, I would much prefer not to carry political or religious bias into this discussion. However, one reason dominates why I must take a stance and that is “intolerance.” Consider what this means.
“in·tol·er·ance
noun
- unwillingness to accept views, beliefs, or behavior that differ from one's own.
"a struggle against religious intolerance"
Similar:
bigotry
narrow-mindedness
small-mindedness
parochialism
provincialism
insularity
fanaticism
dogmatism
illiberality
prejudice
bias
partiality
partisanship
sectarianism
one-sidedness
inequality
unfairness
injustice
discrimination
sensitivity
hypersensitivity
oversensitivity”
I am aware of the irony in my drawing the line. My belief is that if you subscribe to intolerance based on religious or ideological differences that excludes human rights for all people, then that is wrong and therefore requires correction. My critics will ask, “correction by whom or what?” My answer is that governance, chosen by the people, that is consistent with the UDHR is proper for the intervention and disruption of threatening or bad behavior based on that standard.
Factually, religion and government are creations by people as instruments for coping and living peacefully. When they don’t work, or when people deviate from that purpose, then there is conflict and war. The aim is to advocate peace, peaceful resolution and to prevent wars.
THE STATUS OF PEOPLE IN TODAY’S SOCIETY
What is meant by “status,” in the context of this chapter and book?
“sta·tus
noun
the relative social, professional, or other standing of someone or something.
Similar:
standing
rank
ranking
position
social position
station
level
footing
place
repute
reputation
estimation
stature
condition
degree
report”
By beginning with the “Universal Declaration,” its Preamble and 32 Articles, everyone should have equal status. I want to audit that idea, now, as a foundation.
My bet is that most of you have not read the UDHR, and many have never heard of it. It is the standard for human rights throughout the world, and there is no better document in the American government that succinctly defines our rights as human beings.
If you read nothing else, please read this.
“Universal Declaration of Human Rights Preamble
Whereas recognition of the inherent dignity and of the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family is the foundation of freedom, justice and peace in the world, Whereas disregard and contempt for human rights have resulted in barbarous acts which have outraged the conscience of mankind, and the advent of a world in which human beings shall enjoy freedom of speech and belief and freedom from fear and want has been proclaimed as the highest aspiration of the common people, Whereas it is essential, if man is not to be compelled to have recourse, as a last resort, to rebellion against tyranny and oppression, that human rights should be protected by the rule of law, Whereas it is essential to promote the development of friendly relations between nations, Whereas the peoples of the United Nations have in the Charter reaffirmed their faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person and in the equal rights of men and women and have determined to promote social progress and better standards of life in larger freedom, Whereas Member States have pledged themselves to achieve, in cooperation with the United Nations, the promotion of universal respect for and observance of human rights and fundamental freedoms, Whereas a common understanding of these rights and freedoms is of the greatest importance for the full realization of this pledge, Now, therefore, The General Assembly, Proclaims this Universal Declaration of Human Rights as a common standard of achievement for all peoples and all nations, to the end that every individual and every organ of society, keeping this Declaration constantly in mind, shall strive by teaching and education to promote respect for these rights and freedoms and by progressive measures, national and international, to secure their universal and effective recognition and observance, both among the peoples of Member States themselves and among the peoples of territories under their jurisdiction.
Article I All human beings are born free and equal in dignity and rights. They are endowed with reason and conscience and should act towards one another in a spirit of brotherhood.
Article 2 Everyone is entitled to all the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration, without distinction of any kind, such as race, color, sex, language, religion, political or other opinion, national or social origin, property, birth or other status. Furthermore, no distinction shall be made on the basis of the political, jurisdictional or international status of the country or territory to which a person belongs, whether it be independent, trust, non-self-governing or under any other limitation of sovereignty.
Article 3 Everyone has the right to life, liberty and security of person.
Article 4 No one shall be held in slavery or servitude; slavery and the slave trade shall be prohibited in all their forms.
Article 5 No one shall be subjected to torture or to cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment.
Article 6 Everyone has the right to recognition everywhere as a person before the law.
Article 7 All are equal before the law and are entitled without any discrimination to equal protection of the law. All are entitled to equal protection against any discrimination in violation of this Declaration and against any incitement to such discrimination.
Article 8 Everyone has the right to an effective remedy by the competent national tribunals for acts violating the fundamental rights granted him by the constitution or by law.
Article 9 No one shall be subjected to arbitrary arrest, detention or exile.
Article 10 Everyone is entitled in full equality to a fair and public hearing by an independent and impartial tribunal, in the determination of his rights and obligations and of any criminal charge against him.
Article 11 1. Everyone charged with a penal offence has the right to be presumed innocent until proved guilty according to law in a public trial at which he has had all the guarantees necessary for his defense. 11.2. No one shall be held guilty of any penal offence on account of any act or omission which did not constitute a penal offence, under national or international law, at the time when it was committed. Nor shall a heavier penalty be imposed than the one that was applicable at the time the penal offence was committed.
Article 12 No one shall be subjected to arbitrary interference with his privacy, family, home or correspondence, nor to attacks upon his honor and reputation. Everyone has the right to the protection of the law against such interference or attacks.
Article 13 1. Everyone has the right to freedom of movement and residence within the borders of each State. 13.2. Everyone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country.
Article 14 1. Everyone has the right to seek and to enjoy in other countries asylum from persecution. 14. 2. This right may not be invoked in the case of prosecutions genuinely arising from non-political crimes or from acts contrary to the purposes and principles of the United Nations.
Article 15 1. Everyone has the right to a nationality. 15.2. No one shall be arbitrarily deprived of his nationality nor denied the right to change his nationality.
Article 16 1. Men and women of full age, without any limitation due to race, nationality or religion, have the right to marry and to found a family. They are entitled to equal rights as to marriage, during marriage and at its dissolution. 16.2. Marriage shall be entered into only with the free and full consent of the intending spouses. 16.3. The family is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is entitled to protection by society and the State. Article
17 1. Everyone has the right to own property alone as well as in association with others. 17.2. No one shall be arbitrarily deprived of his property.
Article 18 Everyone has the right to freedom of thought, conscience and religion; this right includes freedom to change his religion or belief, and freedom, either alone or in community with others and in public or private, to manifest his religion or belief in teaching, practice, worship and observance.
Article 19 Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; this right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media and regardless of frontiers.
Article 20 1. Everyone has the right to freedom of peaceful assembly and association. 20.2. No one may be compelled to belong to an association.
Article 21 1. Everyone has the right to take part in the government of his country, directly or through freely chosen representatives. 21.2. Everyone has the right to equal access to public service in his country. 21.33. The will of the people shall be the basis of the authority of government; this will shall be expressed in periodic and genuine elections which shall be by universal and equal suffrage and shall be held by secret vote or by equivalent free voting procedures.
Article 22 Everyone, as a member of society, has the right to social security and is entitled to realization, through national effort and international co-operation and in accordance with the organization and resources of each State, of the economic, social and cultural rights indispensable for his dignity and the free development of his personality.
Article 23 1. Everyone has the right to work, to free choice of employment, to just and favorable conditions of work and to protection against unemployment. 23.2. Everyone, without any discrimination, has the right to equal pay for equal work. 23.3. Everyone who works has the right to just and favorable remuneration ensuring for himself and his family an existence worthy of human dignity, and supplemented, if necessary, by other means of social protection. 23.4. Everyone has the right to form and to join trade unions for the protection of his interests.
Article 24 Everyone has the right to rest and leisure, including reasonable limitation of working hours and periodic holidays with pay.
Article 25 1. Everyone has the right to a standard of living adequate for the health and well-being of himself and of his family, including food, clothing, housing and medical care and necessary social services, and the right to security in the event of unemployment, sickness, disability, widowhood, old age or other lack of livelihood in circumstances beyond his control. 25.2. Motherhood and childhood are entitled to special care and assistance. All children, whether born in or out of wedlock, shall enjoy the same social protection.
Article 26 1. Everyone has the right to education. Education shall be free, at least in the elementary and fundamental stages. Elementary education shall be compulsory. Technical and professional education shall be made generally available and higher education shall be equally accessible to all on the basis of merit. 26.2. Education shall be directed to the full development of the human personality and to the strengthening of respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms. It shall promote understanding, tolerance and friendship among all nations, racial or religious groups, and shall further the activities of the United Nations for the maintenance of peace. 26.3. Parents have a prior right to choose the kind of education that shall be given to their children.
Article 27 1. Everyone has the right freely to participate in the cultural life of the community, to enjoy the arts and to share in scientific advancement and its benefits. 27.2. Everyone has the right to the protection of the moral and material interests resulting from any scientific, literary or artistic production of which he is the author.
Article 28 Everyone is entitled to a social and international order in which the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration can be fully realized.
Article 29 1. Everyone has duties to the community in which alone the free and full development of his personality is possible. 29.2. In the exercise of his rights and freedoms, everyone shall be subject only to such limitations as are determined by law solely for the purpose of securing due recognition and respect for the rights and freedoms of others and of meeting the just requirements of morality, public order and the general welfare in a democratic society. 29.3. These rights and freedoms may in no case be exercised contrary to the purposes and principles of the United Nations.
Article 30 Nothing in this Declaration may be interpreted as implying for any State, group or person any right to engage in any activity or to perform any act aimed at the destruction of any of the rights and freedoms set forth herein.”
Now, let’s have a status check.
Status Check America
As write this blog on July 4, 2020, America is very sick. We are among the worst in the world at managing the pandemic, COVID D-19 virus. Police brutality and murder ignited protests that grew violent while President Donald Trump’s rhetoric fanned the flames of national discord. America has not yet lived up to the standard and expectations of its Constitution and too many people are in denial or ignorant of that fact. Election 2020 is approaching and needed is a radical change in direction.
The effect of the pandemic will not permit a simple reset on the economy because structural changes are needed in business and industry to assure a sufficient level of safety. Federal leadership is needed to support States and Local Governments dealing with urgent requirements.
Before the pandemic outbreak, the size of the national debt and deficit loomed to undermine what appeared to be a productive economy. However, beyond happy Wall Street investors lay people still needing wage increases and more upward mobile opportunity. These needs are not addressed by conservative leaders who do not want government to have an equitable role in guiding economic development.
Sustainable economics must be a public and private sector partnership with collaboration in problem-solving, decision making, and planning as I advocate in Regenerating America with Sustainable Economics by James A. George and James A. Rodger © 2107 Archway Publishing.
The first place to begin to understand the status in America is to consider the most current data from the US Bureau of Census. To save readers the trouble, I am posting sections of the data from the 2019 Census as that is what is available. The 2020 Census will show the effect of the pandemic that is not evident here.
Table 1 of 4 From the US 2019 Census
The US population is 323,329,523 persons.
According to a report from the National Public Radio (NPR) referring to Census 2018:
“The annual population growth rate of the United States over the past year continued a decades-long decline, dropping to its lowest level in the past century.
According to newly released estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. population grew by 1,552,022 since 2018, an increase of one-half of one percent.
That rate of growth is slower than during the Great Depression of the 1930s, a period which had until the past decade marked the smallest expansion of the U.S. population since the overall number of inhabitants briefly dropped in 1918.”
Not lost to me are discrepancies. Also, not lost is the reference to 1918, the last major global pandemic. One question is, are their sufficient numbers in people emerging from the youthful side of the table to support the needs of retiring and dependent persons?
I wrote in my “Sustainable Economics” book that nations might benefit by considering the ratio of population size to available resources. That is a complex idea to consider, even for trained economists.
While America hosts more white citizens than those of color, the minority populations are increasing. One must also consider that the nation’s business continues to recruit highly educated persons to fill jobs for which the American education system is failing to prepare. That circumstance brings with it the possibility of more persons of color coming from Asia Nations and India, among others. Immigrants from lower working classes are immigrating from Mexico and South America. These dynamics portend change in American demographics.
Table 2 of 4 From the US 2019 Census
Table 2 data shows that 63.8% of the people own their homes (including those paying mortgages). A large percentage have computers and internet service. While 87.7% are high school graduates, a much smaller number have Bachelor’s degrees at 31.5%. Those percentages are troubling.
Table 3 of 4 From the US 2019 Census
Of interest in this book is the mix of workers by various classes as shown in Table 3. What does this distribution mean? Is it healthy? Is it competitive on a global scale? What is the effect of the pandemic in 2020 on these numbers? Are service workers in the retail industry secure, for instance? Is manufacturing industry still in decline? The data at this high level is insufficient to answer essential questions about economic sustainability.
Table 4 of 4 From the US 2019 Census
It should be evident that much more information is needed to understand the American population and the workforce.
The first place I look for data are US Federal Government organizations that are responsible for keeping track. For critical analysis I look to research institutes of which some are progressive, and others are conservative. As an independent journalist, working in Washington DC and as the National Politics Examiner for the Clarity Media/Examiner, I attended meetings of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). AEI is a conservative organization where I wanted access to conservative politicians and their consultants. I asked them questions first-hand and they obliged. Often, I didn’t agree with them. However, engaging the opposition made my analysis stronger.
“The American Enterprise Institute is a public policy think tank dedicated to defending human dignity, expanding human potential, and building a freer and safer world. The work of our scholars and staff advances ideas rooted in our belief in democracy, free enterprise, American strength and global leadership, solidarity with those at the periphery of our society, and a pluralistic, entrepreneurial culture.”
An opposing organization is the Center for American Progress.
“Our mission
The Center for American Progress is an independent nonpartisan policy institute that is dedicated to improving the lives of all Americans, through bold, progressive ideas, as well as strong leadership and concerted action. Our aim is not just to change the conversation, but to change the country.
Our values
As progressives, we believe America should be a land of boundless opportunity, where people can climb the ladder of economic mobility. We believe we owe it to future generations to protect the planet and promote peace and shared global prosperity. And we believe an effective government can earn the trust of the American people, champion the common good over narrow self-interest, and harness the strength of our diversity.”
Both these organizations sound like their purposes are noble. Their scholars and leaders have very different ideological perspectives. When I write and analyze, as in this book, my aim is not to be academic or to comply with directed-research. I am a citizen individualist with diverse experience from the American workforce and with global engagements. I am patriotic and committed to aim thinking to solving problems by being unencumbered by ideological labels that constrain better judgment. I will die trying.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics
What are the “Major Economic Indicators?” Posted here are the indicators as of May 2020. The data is reported monthly. We hear snippets about them in the news, but if you are not an expert you have no idea what they mean or how relevant they are. In addition, you need to know how they are trending. Missing from all of this is what are the targets for economic progress in America?
Where are you among the statistics? Are you achieving what you wish? Are you “earning” the highest return on your individualism and abilities?
Free-range capitalists and conservatives might argue that it is not the government’s business to engineer economic outcomes. Though they might agree that the role of government is to create an optimal environment in which private enterprise and individuals can optimize their success.
A true partnership between government and private enterprise would result in agreement about strategic goals for optimizing return on human capital.
“Human capital is an intangible asset or quality not listed on a company's balance sheet. It can be classified as the economic value of a worker's experience and skills. This includes assets like education, training, intelligence, skills, health, and other things employers’ value such as loyalty and punctuality.”
“MAJOR ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Consumer Price Index
In May, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers fell 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis; rising 0.1 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted. The index for all items less food and energy fell 0.1 percent in May (SA); up 1.2 percent over the year (NSA).
Employment Cost Index
Compensation costs rose 0.8 percent for civilian workers, seasonally adjusted, from December 2019 to March 2020. Over the year, compensation rose 2.8 percent, with wages and salaries rising 3.1 percent and benefit costs increasing 2.1 percent.
Employment Situation
Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 4.8 million in June, and the unemployment rate fell to 11.1 percent. These improvements in the labor market reflected the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed in March and April due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 0.4 percent in May, as prices for final demand goods increased 1.6 percent and the index for final demand services fell 0.2 percent. The final demand index decreased 0.8 percent for the 12 months ended in May.
Productivity and Costs
Productivity decreased 0.9 percent in the nonfarm business sector in the first quarter of 2020; unit labor costs increased 5.1 percent (seasonally adjusted annual rates). In manufacturing, productivity increased 0.3 percent and unit labor costs increased 6.9 percent.
Real Earnings
Real average hourly earnings decreased 0.9 percent over the month in May, seasonally adjusted. Average hourly earnings decreased 1.0 percent and CPI-U decreased 0.1 percent. Real average weekly earnings increased 0.5 percent over the month.
U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes
U.S. import prices rose 1.0 percent in May, after declining 2.6 percent in April. Prices for U.S. exports increased 0.5 percent in May following a 3.3-percent drop the previous month. Over the past 12 months, import and export prices each fell 6.0 percent.”
What do these things mean? What should we be watching?
Employment & Unemployment
Inflation & Prices
Pay & Benefits & Workforce Injuries
Productivity & Technology
Employment Projections
These topics are of importance in the context of daily and long-term survival where “long-term” for most people means their personal lifecycle. Some people care about their children and grandchildren. Progressive nations take longer view with goals, plans, and policies. To say that America doesn’t have a plan is as erroneous as saying that has a viable one. It doesn’t because our approach is haphazard lacking direction and leadership.
While it may be impossible to predict technology invention, it is possible to manage economic resources to address the needs of the population. Governments have a responsibility to serve all citizens. Corporations have a responsibility to serve their customers, employees and shareholders. Governments are for the general good, corporations are for profit makers and takers. In America, the government helps manage the balance among economic, social, and environmental responsibilities.
The History of Invention
There are thousands of scholarly works addressing this topic. I am using a summary timeline to make a few succinct points.
Without the sun, we humans have nothing. That was true 5 billion years ago, and it is true today. Sustainable economics begins and ends by harnessing solar energy.
It took 10 million years of humans to develop to a “modern” extent. It did not happen by an act of “God,” but by evolution.
“Human evolution is the lengthy process of change by which people originated from apelike ancestors. Scientific evidence shows that the physical and behavioral traits shared by all people originated from apelike ancestors and evolved over a period of approximately six million years.
One of the earliest defining human traits, bipedalism -- the ability to walk on two legs -- evolved over 4 million years ago. Other important human characteristics -- such as a large and complex brain, the ability to make and use tools, and the capacity for language -- developed more recently. Many advanced traits -- including complex symbolic expression, art, and elaborate cultural diversity -- emerged mainly during the past 100,000 years.
Homo sapiens, the first modern humans, evolved from their early hominid predecessors between 200,000 and 300,000 years ago. They developed a capacity for language about 50,000 years ago. The first modern humans began moving outside of Africa starting about 70,000-100,000 years ago.”
Humans are slow learners as it took millions of years to develop the use of tools and we people only learned to start fires 1-2 million years ago. Eventually, we invented candles, car engines, and jet engines and biofuels.
We learned to build boats and began to develop settlements as we learned to farm. We learned to respect water and our environment.
Between 6,000 and 7,000 BCE people invented bricks in the Middle East and ceramics. At about 4,000 BCE they invented iron and steel and glass making.
At 3,500 BCE we invented the wheel and axles. Next came the invention of the written language at about 3,000 BCE.
With that came the demand for paper and its invention in 2,500 BCE. Copper, bronze and other alloys developed that improved tools and weapons.
Ancient Egyptians invented irrigation and the mechanics of lifting, using counterweights.
Semites of the Mediterranean develop the alphabet in 1,700 BCE.
Iron Age began 1,000 BCE. Thales of Miletus discovers static electricity in 600 BCE.
Between 500B BCE– 900 BCE, Nazca people of Peru are believed to have experimented with balloon flight. (Hot-air balloons)
Between 400 BCE– 300 BCE Chinese experiment with flying kites. (Airplanes)
About, 250 CE, Ancient Egyptians invent lighthouses, including the huge Lighthouse of Alexandria. (Fresnel lenses) Next, they invented early magnetic direction finders. (Compasses)
In the same time frame, Archimedes invented the screw pump for moving water and other materials. Next, 150– 100 BCE, came gear-driven, precision clockwork machines (such as the Antikythera mechanism) are in existence. (Clockwork)
In 50 BCE, a Roman engineer Vitruvius perfected the modern, vertical water wheel. (Turbines)
In 62 CE, the Hero of Alexandria, a Greek scientist, pioneered steam power. (Steam engines)
In 105 CE, Ts'ai Lun maked the first paper in China. In 27 BCE–395 CE, Romans developed the first, basic concrete called pozzolana. (Steel and concrete)
Finally, we have reached the Middle Ages at 600 CE, and windmills are invented in the Middle East.
The Chinese invented gunpowder in 700–900 CE.
Between 800–1300 CE, inventors such as the Banū Mūsā brothers and al-Jazari, the Islamic "Golden Age" saw the development of a wide range of technologies, including ingenious clocks and feedback mechanisms that are the ancestors of modern automated factory machines. (Clockwork, cams and cranks)
About, 1000 CE, Chinese develop eyeglasses by fixing lenses to frames that fit onto people's faces. In 1206, an Arabic engineer al-Jazari invented a flushing hand-washing machine, one of the ancestors of the modern toilet. (Toilets) In 1232 CE, Chinese repel Mongol invaders using early rockets. (Space rockets)
Finally, in 1279 CE (BC), Moses invented the Old Testament!
“But has archaeology unearthed one of the sites of the Israelites’ captivity?
That’s the question that some historians have been asking themselves since the 1960s, when the Austrian archaeologist Manfred Bietak identified the location of the ancient city of Pi-Ramesses at the site of the modern town of Qantir in Egypt’s Nile Delta. Pi-Ramesses was the great capital built by Ramesses II, one of Egypt’s most formidable pharaohs and the biblical tormentor of the Israelites. It’s been argued that Pi-Ramesses was the biblical city of Ramesses, and that the city was built, as Exodus claims, by Jewish slaves.
It’s an intriguing theory, and one that certainly has its doubters. But if it were true, it would place the enslaved Israelites in the Nile Delta in the decades after 1279 BC, when Ramesses II became king. So what happened next?
The Bible is in little doubt. It tells us that Moses led the Israelites out of their captivity in Egypt (whose population had been laid low by ten plagues inflicted on them by God) before Joshua spearheaded a brilliant invasion of Canaan, the promised land.”
If people did their homework and availed themselves of the knowledge in history, they might discover that warring about religious ideology is a fruitless waste of human intellect.
In 1450, Johannes Gutenberg pioneered the modern printing press, using rearrangeable metal letters called movable type. In the 1470s, the first parachute is sketched on paper by an unknown inventor. In the 1530s, Gerardus Mercator helps to revolutionize navigation with better mapmaking.
In 1590, a Dutch spectacle maker named Zacharias Janssen makes the first compound microscope. In 1596, in John Harington describes one of the first modern flush toilets. The Egyptians had a handle on that invention a thousand years earlier, yet it didn’t get developed. People didn’t demand it.
Now, you can fast forward through the history of inventions to our most recent time, and the message is the same:
1. Invention is based on geniuses, trial and error, plodding into discoveries for which they find practical applications.
2. In an environment that is free and unguided, the process takes forever.
3. When humans have pressing needs, they can focus and accelerate the process.
4. When humans accumulate capital and resources that support geniuses, valuable and sometimes dangerous products are a result.
I am skipping past the invention of trains, automobiles and airplanes, though not because their history is anything less than profound. The invention of transportation technologies drive the modern economy along with computer technologies.
You can dive into any topic such as these to discover the genius of individuals, their inventions including business organizations. Scanning recent history demonstrates to me an acceleration of inventions that change how we live and work. They represent new work opportunities and demonstrate how rapidly people can find themselves becoming obsolete unless they keep pace with advancing knowledge and skill.
Continuing the review spanning my lifetime is the following.
In 1942, Enrico Fermi built the first nuclear chain reactor at the University of Chicago. (Nuclear power) I visited the Fermi Lab outside of Chicago, though was not born until 1948.
In 1945, the US government scientist, Vannevar Bush proposed a kind of desk-sized memory store called Memex, which had some of the features later incorporated into electronic books and the World Wide Web (WWW). (Electronic books) Also in 1945, Arthur C. Clarke conceived the idea of the communications satellite, a space-based signal "mirror" that can bounce radio waves from one side of Earth to the other. (Satellites)
In 1947, John Bardeen, Walter Brattain, and William Shockley invent the transistor, which allowed electronic equipment to made much smaller and leads to the modern computer revolution. A year after my birth, in 1949, Bernard Silver and N. Joseph Woodland patented barcodes—striped patterns that are initially developed for marking products in grocery stores.
In the 1950s, Charles Townes and Arthur Schawlow invented the maser (microwave laser). Gordon Gould coined the word “laser" and built the first optical laser in 1958.
Stanford Ovshinksy developed various technologies that make renewable energy more practical, including practical solar cells and improved rechargeable batteries. European bus companies experimented with using flywheels as regenerative brakes.
Percy Spencer accidentally discovered how to cook with microwaves, inadvertently inventing the microwave oven.
In 1954, Indian physicist Narinder Kapany pioneered fiber optics. In 1955, US electrical engineer Eugene Polley invented the TV remote control. In 1956, the first commercial nuclear power is produced at Calder Hall, Cumbria, England.
In 1957, the Soviet Union (Russia and her allies) launch the Sputnik space satellite. Lawrence Curtiss, Basil Hirschowitz, and Wilbur Peters build the first fiber-optic gastroscope.
In 1958, Jack Kilby and Robert Noyce, working independently, developed the integrated circuit. In 1959, IBM and General Motors developed Design Augmented by Computers-1 (DAC-1), the first computer-aided design (CAD) system. (I the author was ten years old.)
In the 1960s, Joseph-Armand Bombardier perfected his Ski-Doo® snowmobile. Theodore Maiman invented the ruby laser. In 1962, William Armistead and S. Donald Stookey of Corning Glass Works invent light-sensitive (photochromic) glass.
In 1962, Nick Holonyak invented the LED (light-emitting diode) while working at General Electric. In 1963, Ivan Sutherland developed Sketchpad, one of the first computer-aided design programs.
In 1964, IBM helped pioneer e-commerce with an airline ticket reservation system called SABRE. In 1965, Frank Pantridge developed the portable defibrillator for treating cardiac arrest patients.
I graduated from high school in 1966 and enrolled at The Ohio State University.
In 1966, Stephanie Kwolek patented a super-strong plastic called Kevlar. Robert H. Dennard of IBM invented dynamic random access memory (DRAM).
In 1967 as Japanese company Noritake, invented the vacuum fluorescent display (VFD). In 1968,
Alfred Y. Cho and John R. Arthur, Jr invented a precise way of making single crystals called molecular beam epitaxy (MBE).
In 1967-68, I worked on scholarship for North American Aviation that became Rockwell International. I worked in the engineering department, making changes to drawings. Then, I moved to the factory floor, and cut precision parts for aircraft.
In 1969, I, the author, took leave for Active Training Duty in the US Army.
In 1969, the World's first solar power station opened in France. Long before computers became portable, Alan Kay imagined building an electronic book, which he nicknames the Dynabook. Willard S. Boyle and George E. Smith invented the CCD (charge-coupled device): the light-sensitive chip used in digital cameras, webcams, and other modern optical equipment.
In 1969, Astronauts walked on the Moon. I watched the lunar landing from my barracks at Fort Dix, New Jersey. Douglas Engelbart developed the computer mouse. In the 1960s James Russell invented compact discs.
I, the author, got married in 1971 and worked for Western Electric Company and managed the instructional television video studio. It was a time when there was no international standard for video tape and tape recorders. I learned first-hand what that meant.
In 1971, electronic ink was pioneered by Nick Sheridon at Xerox PARC. Ted Hoff built the first single-chip computer or microprocessor.
In 1973, Martin Cooper developed the first handheld cellphone (mobile phone). Robert Metcalfe figured out a simple way of linking computers together that he names Ethernet. Most computers hooked up to the Internet now use it.
In 1974, the first grocery-store purchase of an item coded with a barcode. In 1975, Whitfield Diffie and Martin Hellman invented public-key cryptography. In 1975, Pico Electronics developed X-10 home automation system.
I completed eight years of college education in 1975 with multiple majors in business and technology.
In 1976, Steve Wozniak and Steve Jobs launched the Apple I: one of the world's first personal home computers
When the computer geeks were inventing, I worked at Bendix Automation, organizing a product line of metrology instruments.
Between the 1970s– 1980s, James Dyson invented the bagless, cyclonic vacuum cleaner.
Between 1970s– 1980s, scientists including Charles Bennett, Paul Benioff, Richard Feynman, and David Deutsch sketched out how quantum computers might work.
In the 1980s, Japanese electrical pioneer Akio Morita developed the Sony Walkman, the first truly portable player for recorded music.
In 1979, I became publisher of Infosystems Magazine for ABC Hitchcock and met Wozniak and Jobs, as well as Bill Gates.
In 1981, stung by Apple's success, IBM released its own affordable personal computer (PC). The Space Shuttle made its maiden voyage. Patricia Bath developed laser eye surgery for removing cataracts. Fujio Masuoka filed a patent for flash memory—a type of reusable computer memory that can store information even when the power is off.
Between 1981– 1982, Alexei Ekimov and Louis E. Brus (independently) discover quantum dots.
In 1983, compact discs (CDs) are launched as a new way to store music by the Sony and Philips corporations.
1987 Larry Hornbeck, working at Texas Instruments, developed DLP® projection—now used in many projection TV systems. DLP® projectors.
In 1988, I founded Talon Publishing and Research Company and researched the market for commercializing the Department of Defense Advanced Research Project Agency network (DARPANET) with GTE Telecom and Daniel S. Appleton. My computer was an Apple Plus. I merged D. Appleton Company to support clients with New Business Engineering process and support. We supported clients such as EDS and General Motors among many others.
In 1989, Tim Berners-Lee invented the World Wide Web.
In 1990, German watchmaking company Junghans introduces the MEGA 1, believed to be the world's first radio-controlled wristwatch. In 1991, Linus Torvalds created the first version of Linux, a collaboratively written computer operating system.
In 1994, the American-born mathematician John Daugman perfected the mathematics that make iris scanning systems possible. Israeli computer scientists Alon Cohen and Lior Haramaty invented VoIP for sending telephone calls over the Internet.
In 1995, Broadcast.com becomes one of the world's first online radio stations. Pierre Omidyar launched the eBay auction website. In 1996, WRAL-HD broadcast the first high-definition television (HDTV) signal in the United States.
In 1997, Electronics companies agree to make Wi-Fi a worldwide standard for wireless Internet.
Now, in the 21st century, Apple revolutionized music listening by unveiling its iPod MP3 music player. Richard Palmer developed energy-absorbing D3O plastic.
In 2001, The Wikipedia online encyclopedia is founded by Larry Sanger and Jimmy Wales. Bram Cohen develops BitTorrent file-sharing. Scott White, Nancy Sottos, and colleagues developed self-healing materials.
In 2002, iRobot Corporation released the first version of its Roomba® vacuum cleaning robot. In 2004, electronic voting played a major part in a controversial US Presidential Election. In 2005, a pioneering low-cost laptop for developing countries called OLPC is announced by MIT computing pioneer Nicholas Negroponte.
In 2007, Amazon.com launched its Kindle electronic book (e-book) reader. Apple introduced a touchscreen cellphone called the iPhone. In 2010, Apple released its touchscreen tablet computer, the iPad.
In 2013, Elon Musk announced "hyperloop"—a giant, pneumatic tube transport system. In 2015, supercomputers (the world's fastest computers) are now a mere 30 times less powerful than human brains.
In 2016, Three nanotechnologists win the Nobel Prize in Chemistry for building miniature machines out of molecules. In 2019, Google claimed to have achieved "quantum supremacy"—with a quantum computer that calculates faster than a conventional one.
Now, in 2020, one can hope scientists will create a vaccine and effective therapeutics to end the pandemic.
“Here are eight technology trends you should watch for in 2020, and some of the jobs that will be created by these trends:
Artificial Intelligence (AI) ...
Machine Learning. ...
Robotic Process Automation or RPA. ...
Edge Computing. ...
Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality. ...
Cybersecurity. ...
Blockchain. ...
Internet of Things (IoT)”
The key from this citation is “the jobs that will be created by these trends.”
The point is that if people do not keep pace with advancing technologies and their impact on work, they will fall behind and may become obsolete. Without rigorous attention to continuous life-long learning, with focus on new knowledge and skill acquisition, people will lose their ability for self-sustainment. They will lose their capacity to support families and to meet their obligations.
Where will you be on the timeline in which your lifecycle parallels?
The fact remains that not everyone is suited for “computer” and “service work.” America has lost its crafts professionals and manufacturing employment across the spectrum of industrial work. That deficiency results in undermining upward mobility. It also undermines national security by increasing dependence on foreign producers.
It is fair to assume that the pandemic experience will impact the retail and service business sector. Many businesses will fail and many jobs will disappear as a result. The opportunity mix is in flux.
A central lesson from the COVID-19 pandemic experience is that service workers of all kinds are extremely valuable. That extends from the healthcare workers to grocery store workers, and everyone in the logistics supply chain. The paradigm is shifting as more people use on-line shopping and delivery services. Retail shops and restaurants are enjoyed, though are not on critical path in an emergency.
Knowledge abounds and increases in the environment, and people access and use it at will. Some knowledge and skill requirements are imposed by the education system, while others are addressed by people making choices. People have different aptitudes and personality traits and make decisions about their career and vocation choices. Opportunities vary by occupation in accordance with the “Industrial Outlook.”
Most industry groups that make economic forecasts predict a recession in 2021 resulting from the pandemic.
WORK OPPORTUNITY OUTLOOK
Predicting economic performance is wrought with challenges and pundits often criticize and laugh at economists and their forecasts. I don’t. As an investor, I pay attention and fortunately, and invest conservatively.
In my early years, I learned that opportunities emerge and evaporate quickly. One needs to continue learning and to keep an eye on the moving target. Most people don’t have the time or inclination to pay attention to any more than personal sustainability and taking care of their families. They depend on government and private services to help them.
I realize from experience how difficult it is to plan and predict outcomes. For instance, when I worked for Bendix Automation & Measurement Division, we had to forecast production requirements quarterly. As a division of a Fortune 500 company, sales forecasts were expected to be 99% accurate. To accomplish that, there was constant communications between the sales force and their customers, the marketing department, and manufacturing management. Supply chain management and logistics were exceedingly important disciplines then as now.
In fact, all business and industry today is connected and managed by trading partner relationships that transcend the globe.
There were events that we could not see or anticipate such as new competitive inventions by competitors. We could not see changes in trade and economic policies that destroyed manufacturing in America.
The US Government publishes an annual Industry Outlook Report that is referenced to guide planning with a longer view. I have learned to research multiple sources as the government tends to lag. I want to share excerpts from that document to illustrate the type of information that it contains and also to discuss what it doesn’t address.
The title of this chapter is “Work Opportunity Outlook,” and that is derived from a host of considerations including the Industry Outlook.
Imagine that you are in high school and thinking about your career interests. By now you have some idea about your abilities, strengths and weaknesses. You are developing ideas about your vocation or occupation.
If you could see the timeline of the future, where would you like to be?
When teens reach high school, they are often administered tests to help them understand their desire for certain vocations and occupations. Included are psychological and intelligence profiles. It is my belief that this engagement should be mandatory accompanied by instruction about planning their lives, including training and education.
