Wednesday, October 12, 2016

Mosul: Why not pick a winner?

Allied forces are amassed today to kick the Islamic State out of Mosel. Look at the regional map. Observe the prominence of the Kurds. Know that the Kurds have been the most loyal and effective ally to the US in the region. The Kurds want to secure their nation state and to defend it. They are opposed to Iran that borders them. Iran is a US enemy, therefore backing them would be helpful. 

The Kurds have stood their ground against ISIS in Iraq and Syria. Turkey has a beef with the Kurds because Turkey opposes them having a state on its border.

To this analyst, it seems that US foreign policy should support the Kurds in establishing their independent state. That would require a lot of work:

1. Negotiating with the Iraq government to permit the Kurds to develop an independent state.

2. Negotiating the same thing with Turkey.

3. Shoring up the Kurds with sufficient arms to combat potential Iranian insurgency, in addition to protecting against remnants of ISIS, al Qaeda, and other morphing terrorists.

4. Negotiating with other tribal groups in Iraq to secure representation in the Iraq government.

The story in Iraq is about how the fight for Mosul will be messy in the aftermath. Being clearer about US policy with the Kurds would help clarify the future and enable a way forward.

"Battle to banish Islamic State from Mosul could become a mess

Pro-government forces drive in military vehicles in Iraq's eastern Salahuddin province, south of Hawijah, on Oct. 10 as they clear the area ahead of the push to retake the northern Iraqi city of Mosul. (Mahmoud Al-Samarrai/AFP/Getty Images) 
By Loveday Morris October 12 at 3:00 AM  
IRBIL, Iraq — The battle plans to oust the Islamic State from the city of Mosul are in place, but an uneasy mix of forces fighting against the militants could delay the fight or ignite separate conflicts. 
Washington Post


Image from Jane's via the Washington Post

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