Understanding the Trump Economic Hype

The fact is that Donald Trump and Republican Tax Policy accompanied by reduced regulation have an immediate positive effect on wealthy persons and corporations that act at once to exploit the advantage. It is also a fact that the long-term consequences of their policies and actions won't become apparent for four to eight years after implementation.

Wall Street rallies and posts big gains. Some companies give modest raises while reducing the size of their workforce. The results are mixed.

That is why it is imperative that Congressional systems can accurately simulate, project, and predict economic consequences of laws and regulations. I wrote about that in my book, Smart Data, Enterprise Performance Optimization Strategy (c) 2010 Wiley Publishing. It was a plea to apply math and systems engineering technology to support the creation of laws and regulations to understand their expected performance and to identify possible disasters. The US Department of Defense paid attention, while most of the government does not.

In another book, Regenerating America with Sustainable Economics by James A. George and James A. Rodger (c) 2017 Archway Publishing, I try again to explain the imperative to change the economic model and to become better at predictive management.

"When Hillary Clinton said last spring that she would put her husband “in charge of revitalizing the economy,” I argued that Bill Clinton doesn’t deserve much credit for the late-1990s boom. That’s not a knock on the 42nd president in particular. It’s just that presidents, in general, have far less control over the economy than the public often thinks. It is impossible to know for sure, but it is likely that the housing boom and bust would have played out much the same way under President Gore as it did under President Bush, and it’s likely that the recovery would have been just as long (and just as disappointing) under President McCain or President Romney as it has been under President Obama. 

But that doesn’t mean presidents have no power over the economy at all, or that their policies are unimportant. Indeed, presidents, along with Congress, can exert profound influence over the economy, for good and ill. It’s just that their true impact is rarely what gets talked about in party conventions or on the campaign trail. True presidential impacts are often invisible — as much about what doesn’t happen as what does — and become clear only years or even decades after they leave office." 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-presidents-economic-decisions-matter-eventually/

The Congressional Budget Office predicts some dire consequences from the Trump policies, however, no one is listening yet.

I have listened to several savvy capitalists discuss their investment planning, and while they are pleased to leverage the current policy, there is caution. For one thing, they believe there are hidden negatives to be discovered that will dampen some of the positives. More important, they anticipate the bubble bursting sooner than later because the Trump plans are riddled with unrealistic assumptions.

They are calling him 'pragmatic'