Ukraine is the Red Line

Tossing and turning in the night, I contemplated two things among the many horrors inflicted by Russia on our free world. First, they used Iskander missiles with a range of 500 miles. Yesterday, they fired a hypersonic missile from a plane in Russian air space and hit an ammo depot in Ukraine. There is no effective defense against the hypersonic missile, and shooting down a jet over Russia would initiate WWIII. Our hands are tied at the moment.

Many other nations are developing hypersonic missiles, and the U.S. will deploy our first this month. We're behind China and Russia in this technology, and building a defense system is at least a year away.

Currently, Russia has the world over the proverbial barrel, with tacit support from China. If the free world permits Russia to overwhelm Ukraine, there is the scenario for Russia continuing the assault on former USSR states. Nuclear war is always in breach.

The Russians will feel the pain, and with China supporting them, they will become like a Chinese province, wholly dependent.

Would China be content to face a shrinking economy and degraded quality of life due to themselves incurring sanctions? Would China find it desirable to be anchored by Russia and the Republic of North Korea, rogue nations much different than their own? 

Now is the time to speak with China, not about the negatives but how to forge a positive and productive future through mutual respect. Cowboy diplomacy will not work.

I proposed the discussion should be about optimizing sustainable economies for humanity's sake. Those, like Russia, who are willing to risk Armageddon and the end of life as we know it is incongruent with China which manages a massive population while sustaining a healthy economy.

From China's perspective, their model of communism is more successful than Russia's. The U.S. capitalist model has its positives, though unsustainable, as I wrote in Regenerating America with Sustainable Economics.

The way ahead is for China and the U.S. to concentrate on leading the way to global economic sustainability. It must be give-and-take. The starting points include:

1. Embracing the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
2. Being respectful of alternative economic models
3. Adopting the rule of law
4. Rejecting authoritarianism

https://www.amazon.com/Regenerating-America-Sustainable-Economics-Ahead/dp/1480851094

Where Do You Stand?

We Americans use many terms loosely to define what we are and what we are not, politically and economically. I believe that we need to be more precise and concise about what is required and define our direction.

Certainty:

Our Constitution defines a democratic system of government based on the rule of law and elected representation—individuals with specific rights.

Preservation of the democratic republic demands continuous improvement as the system allows to respond and adapt to people's needs.

Uncertainty:

Recent history shows that the U. S. democratic nation can be attacked from within when 1) the President and his party disrespect the rule of law, 2) political leadership and elected representatives lie and are untrustworthy, 3) insurrectionists seek to overthrow or disrupt the system of free and unfettered elections.

Since the beginning, American citizens have learned about different choices in economic models and forms of governing society.

Capitalism is an economic and political system in which a country's trade and industry are controlled by private owners for profit rather than by the state.

Socialism is a political and economic theory of social organization that advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community.

Communism is a political theory derived from Karl Marx, advocating class war and leading to a society where all property is publicly owned. Each person works and is paid according to their abilities and needs.

Democracy is a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives.

Optimized Sustainment Model is an economic model and political theory integral to democratic government, with free enterprise performing to achieve balanced economic, social, and environmental responsibilities.

Authoritarianism is the enforcement or advocacy of strict obedience to authority at the expense of personal freedom.

Individuals (citizens) living in distributed communities are defined as local governments, cities, counties residing in Congressional Districts operating in State boundaries.

There are issues about defining Congressional Districts that change in response to population size and location. The process must be assured as fair for which there are no agreed-upon standards.

In my research and book, Regenerating American with Sustainable Economics, I postulated the Optimized Sustainment Model to guide the way ahead.

I hope you read the book.

The Case Against Russia

What frustrates many people is the apparent dilly-dally pace in applying the rule of law -- whether prosecuting Donald J. Trump for his treacherous role in the January 6 insurrection or bringing Putin and Russia to the International Criminal Court for war crimes and violating national sovereignty. 

My article addresses Russia's invasion of Ukraine from a free-world citizen's point of view.

"An investigation into possible war crimes in Ukraine was launched after Russia was accused of bombing civilians. The International Criminal Court (ICC) chief prosecutor said evidence was collected on alleged war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide.

It came after 39 nations called for an inquiry to be opened."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60597751

Yes, the first action is to bring charges and launch an investigation. 

Before delving into the primary topic, I must note that many people in the United States do not observe the ICC as having governance over Americans. War crimes may have been committed in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan by members of the U.S. Armed Forces. However, the U.S. government would resist subordinating Americans to the prosecution by the ICC.

"The compromise reached by the Security Council did not provide permanent immunity for U.S. soldiers and officials from prosecution by the ICC; rather, it invoked Article 16 of the Rome Statute 21 to defer potential prosecutions for one year."

For more about the U.S. Policy Regarding The International Criminal Court, read the following link:

https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL31495.html#:~:text=peacekeeping%20efforts%20who%20are%20nationals,potential%20prosecutions%20for%20one%20year.

Hypocrisy

"Is the US a member of the ICC? The U.S. is not a state party to the Rome Statute. The U.S. participated in the negotiations that led to the court's creation."

With that gross embarrassment aside:

The ICC can only investigate and prosecute "natural persons" over the age of 18. The ICC cannot investigate or prosecute governments, corporations, political parties, or rebel movements but may investigate individuals members of groups.

Therefore, Putin and his commanders can be prosecuted, but not Russia, the state, or the government.

"Ukraine has few legal options to hold Russia accountable for invasion

Despite the expansion of international law since World War II and the establishment of various courts aimed at settling conflicts between nations, it is unlikely Russia will face legal consequences for its invasion of Ukraine."

https://www.courthousenews.com/ukraine-has-few-legal-options-to-hold-russia-accountable-for-invasion/

Therefore, the only way to prosecute Russia for its criminal invasion of a sovereign nation is to 1) free-world imposition of sanctions 2) support Ukrain with humanitarian and military aid.

Enter China into the equation. China can support the notion of national sovereignty or not. China can support Ukraine with humanitarian assistance as it is. Or, China might decide to help Russia and its illegal invasion. 

If China chooses to support Russia in any fashion that undermines the free-world sanctions and actions, it crosses the line to become the sanctions target.

Ukrainians who live in Lebanon hold placards and chant slogans during a protest against Moscow's attack on their country outside the Russian embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, on Thursday, Feb. 24, 2022. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

Improving the Incentives for China

 I read an article by Mark Ross and Michael Keane with keen interest that explains clearly how the Russia and China business models are strategically linked.

Russia wants to provide China with petroleum and grain via a land bridge.

China wants a more efficient way to fuel its factories and people as an alternative to the sea on which it is 60% dependent.

The trouble is, Russia doesn't own Ukraine, the breadbasket. That is why Russia invaded Ukraine.

China is providing humanitarian relief to Ukraine as a hedge. If China joins Russia with military assistance, then China will be shunned by the free world customers on which it also depends.

While authoritarians rule both China and Russia, the nation-states are different culturally and economically. Their shared deficiency is the abuse of human rights. 

In negotiating with China, the opportunity for improvement is significant.

Poland has already begun to improve the trade route to China via the Black Sea.

"Poland's biggest port, the Port of Gdansk, has signed a letter of intent with the Ukrainian Sea Ports Authority to open up a new alternative transport corridor between the Black Sea and the Baltic."

https://www.maritime-executive.com/corporate/new-black-sea-to-the-baltic-trade-route-deal

"The new communication route connecting China with Ukraine, launched in mid-January, is the first step in pushing Russia out of the transit of goods from the Great Wall to the Eiffel Tower.

The old Silk Road, Wakeham Corridor (Lensnmatter, CC BY)

Just one month after signing the Ukrainian-Chinese memorandum of January 15, the containers were at the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk. The railway and sea route passes through the territories of Ukraine and then Georgia, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan before arriving in China.

The route is part of the so-called New Silk Road, and it provides an alternative for cargo from Ukraine to these markets. It means that Ukrainian and European goods will reach Central Asia even if Moscow imposes sanctions."

https://www.obserwatorfinansowy.pl/in-english/macroeconomics/ukraine-joins-the-silk-road/

Thwarted are Russia's desires and ambitions before accomplishing its military mission. There is no win-win in this situation for China.

Alternatively, the U.S. can do much more to improve strategic relationships with China. When I worked with Chinese students from Bao Steel Company, I suggested a strategic relationship between their raw steel production and American companies that produced finished products. The quid-pro-quo balance ensures that both parties benefit, and the U.S. Department of Trade should pursue that model with greater purpose and precision by the U.S. Department of Trade.

The challenge is to meld industrial and trade policy with free-market capitalism (regulated capitalism). The capitalist model does not work to achieve the needs of our democratic republic that is to balance economic, social, and environmental responsibilities.

Please read my book: Regenerating America with Sustainable Economics to understand the whole story.

The End of Tolerance of Authoritarians

Nuclear-armed authoritarians and rogue nation hosts are the greatest danger to global security. The challenge is how to reach subjugated populations with the truth and to inspire revolts against them.

The Putin-Russian situation presents the opportunity to determine if extreme economic sanctions can thwart totalitarian aggression against sovereign neighbors. It requires united and disciplined actions by the free-world nations. The test is to see if the free-nations remain united for a sufficient time to undermine Putin's authority.

My concern is that it isn't Putin alone that is the Russian problem. It is the system of governance that supports the authoritarian rule. 

Can a nation born in communism as a style of government change its economic and political model sufficiently to support the Universal Declaration of Human Rights? 

The answer is that people must determine their direction, and that process requires vision, leadership, values, and a standard. Nation-building begins with citizens, and the outcome is never inevitable.

The immediate goals of the free world include:

1. Promotion of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights
2. Sustaining free-world alliances such as NATO
3. Supporting nuclear disarmament and global regulation
4. Sanctioning all authoritarian regimes and their host nations with economic isolation
5. Offering incentives for governments to change and improve by rejecting authoritarian leadership and embracing democratic freedom

Maintaining a solid and superior military defense is essential to enabling progress.

The Aim

How to Disarm an Authoritarian Dictator

Authoritarian dictators appear from time to time, though now, the stakes are higher than ever for all humanity because many are armed with weapons of mass destruction.

Dictators rest atop various forms of society.

1. They may preside over a constitutionally-driven nation where the rules of law subordinate individualism, or they can govern in a constitutionally elected state where individualism is highly valued.
2. Dictators may appear as a product of counterrevolutionary forces. (a revolution opposing a former one or reversing its results.)
3. Fascism is a form of far-right, authoritarian ultranationalism characterized by dictatorial power. It includes forcible suppression of opposition and strong regimentation of society and the economy.

In all instances, the dictator has managed to coerce the population and governance to achieve absolute and unchallenged power. Dictators are unseated when the subjugated population rises against them at their peril. 

In the free world versus Putin's Russia, economic sanctions constrain them. The alternative is military force, though that is impossible because Russia is nuclear-armed.

Time is not on the side of a dictator. A dictatorial regime, aka a Rogue state, can endure replacing one dictator with a like-kind.

When the force of the free world is united, pressure mounts against dictatorial regimes, though toppling them may take many years.

In today's advanced societies, my bet is the tenure for dictators will be increasingly shorter because the subjugated populations learn more about what is happening beyond their repressed condition.

https://ukrainianweek.com/History/90454

Transforming China from Enemy to Allie

Can it be done, appealing to China to become a free-world friend and member versus an enemy and threat? One can hope that President Biden is working the channels now.

Are there amenable leaders in Chinese to engage in this conversation?

I am not a China scholar nor a student of President Xi Jinping, "China's 'Chairman of Everything," though here is what I observed in my recent lifetime:

1. Xi can walk a tightrope in international relations. 
2. President Xi has met with past Presidents and with President Joe Biden.
3. Xi had a humble beginning before earning a Ph.D. in law.

I have read and seen some of his past actions that indicate a dichotomy:

1. He deplores corruption.
2. He advocates for free trade and globalization.
3. He initiated harsh actions against human rights.
4. He is aggressive in establishing a military defense around China.
5. He is aggressive toward Taiwan as he took over Hong Kong.

Xi's desire to continue to build China as a global trading partner is the basis for incentives to improve human rights in China.

The United States must engage China under Xi's leadership to help convince Russia to change its leadership away from Putin and toward a more peaceful regime. 

Part of the exchange should include:

1. More strategic trading partnerships in manufacturing industries
2. Mutual protection for intellectual property under the rule of law
3. Denuclearization
4. Reduction of tension between the US and North Korea

The general foreign policy theme between the US and China should center on embracing the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, asserting respect for national sovereignty that includes not demonizing socialism and communism when those forms of economy are the peoples' choices.

The US will promote democracy and sustainable economies as a global strategy to keep the peace while recognizing different forms and avenues for accomplishing that.

With China, I think it is essential to emphasize that China is strategically vital for securing world peace, beginning now by influencing Russia to withdraw from hostility against sovereign nations.

Image from Politico

How Will It End?

The reports about Ukraine say it will worsen as the Russian assault increases. The world witnesses the terror inflicted by the worst dictator since Hitler and tries to stop it with sanctions. 

Sanctions will make Russians suffer, but will it stop the dictator?

There are only a few options for halting an authoritarian dictator.

1. Penetrate the Russian society with appeals to overthrow the dictatorial regime. 
2. Appeal to the dictator's inner circle and high military officials for a coup.
3. Appeal to prominent supporters to end the assault and retreat, i.e., China.

Military intervention hasn't stopped Russia, as in Syria, for instance. Military confrontation with the Russian madman will result in nuclear war and possibly the end of humanity.

Options 1-3 plus sanctions will likely work eventually. China is the key to accelerating a peaceful conclusion.

My opinion.

Image from Change.org

Purge the Scourge Within

Republicanism transformed virally under Donald J. Trump, spreading a disease for which the only cure is eradication.

The epidemic that is Trumpism is threatening all our democratic society and will not go away on its own. Public education is a slow process that is on the road to a long-term cure.

However, the danger is prevalent and persistent among locations in America for which there are common characteristics.

1. Rural isolation
2. Racism
3. Ideological extremism
4. Intellectual deficits

Democrats are the political opposites, though they need to reach the dispersed communities by offering meaningful improvements in the quality of life for adults and children. Calling them ignorant is no cure. Treating the disease with tinder care is a part of the answer.

The solution for the patients who have become armed and dangerous is to prosecute hate crimes and be vigilant about their existence.

FBI