James George
How To Select An American President
19 December 2023
Addressing NPR’s Ten Questions
"Subtitle: Every presidential year is a consequential one. 2024 is no different, as the competing visions for the country couldn’t be more disparate. In my last campaign newsletter of the year, here are 10 questions for the year ahead in politics. (Domenico Montanaro, NPR’s senior political editor/correspondent)
- Do perceptions of the economy improve? It’s the top issue for voters, and they are in a bad mood about it, despite receding inflation.
- Does abortion retain its salience? This is the first presidential election since the Dobbs decision.
- How do the situations in Ukraine and Israel change? Perceptions of how Biden is handling foreign policy have hurt his presidency.
- Do younger voters rally to Biden’s side despite their misgivings — or not? Israel’s war with Hamas, voting rights and student loans have all been areas of frustration for younger voters.
- Can Haley or DeSantis actually give Trump a run — or does Trump wrap up the primary quickly? They’ve been decided underdogs. It’s time to see whether one of them actually has the goods when voters vote.
- Do Trump’s trials wind up mattering — if not for Republican primary voters, for persuadable ones in a general election? Most Republicans may think he’s being persecuted, but Independents and Democrats think he did something wrong.
- Do third-party candidates gain real traction and become the 2024 wildcard? Trump did not get above 47% of the popular vote in either 2016 or 2020. A third-party that pulls votes from Biden could help clear a path back to the White House for Trump.
- How will attrition among election officials affect vote counting in states? A lot of institutional knowledge in election administration has been lost because of threats from the right after Trump’s 2020 election lies.
- Do democratic institutions hold again? The reason Trump's attempts to stay in power did not work is because institutions — like election officials across the country, Congress and the courts — did their jobs. But they’ve been targeted in a three-year campaign by Trump and allies.
- Which ends up mattering more — frustrations with how Biden is doing his job (and his age), or negative views of Trump? This may be the most critical question of this presidential election. Most voters say Biden is too old, and they give him low approval ratings, but they also really don’t like Trump. Democrats will spend millions of dollars to wipe away voters’ “brain fog” and remind them of Trump’s actions and views, many of which have become increasingly anti-democratic on the campaign trail. Which will win out in the end?
Jim George’s Answers
1. Economy
The chances are Americans will experience positive economic returns in 2024.
“Ten business trends for 2024
1 Central banks including America’s Federal Reserve start to reduce interest rates as price rises slow. With global inflation still at 5%, however, consumers remain thrifty.
2 Amid efforts to slow climate change, renewable-energy consumption climbs by 11% to a new high. But fossil fuels still meet over four-fifths of energy demand.
3 IT spending picks up, rising by about 9%. Artificial intelligence generates remarkable hype but produces precious little revenue and plenty of scrutiny.
4 The gap between the infrastructure the world needs and what it gets amounts to $3trn. To plug its infrastructure hole, Asia’s gross fixed investment expands by 4%.
5 Revenue in the advertising industry increases by 5%, thanks to America’s presidential election and big sporting events such as the Paris Olympics.
6 International tourism rises above geopolitical and economic uncertainty to create record revenue of $1.5trn, fuelled by high prices and post-pandemic wanderlust.
7 A greying world spends vigorously on health. With about one in ten people aged 65 or older, health care makes up one-tenth of global gdp.
8 America shells out $886bn on defence, supporting Ukraine and countering China—whose neighbours, including Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines, also bolster their defences.
9 Electric vehicles speed forth, driven by strong government support. One in four new cars is a plug-in, with more than half of these sold in China.
10 With 60% of America’s firms allowing working from home, a fifth of American offices lie empty. The eu’s less relaxed employers will keep its vacancy rate at just 8%.
From The Economist, Nov 13, 2023
Federal borrowing and debt
“The deficit is projected to grow to $1,846 billion in 2024, and debt held by the public is projected to grow to $27,783 billion, or 102.0 percent of GDP. As a percent of GDP, the deficit is projected to fall in 2025 and 2026 and then remain fairly stable at roughly 5 percent of GDP.”
2. Abortion
Women will vote in high numbers, driven by the desire to protect their rights.
“Nearly two dozen Republican-controlled states have taken advantage of the ruling to impose new restrictions on abortion, curtailing access to the procedure for tens of millions of women.
But the ruling has also turned the issue into a political liability for Republicans. Voter backlash was widely credited with limiting Republican gains in the 2022 congressional midterm elections, as well as propelling Democrats to victories last month in Virginia and Kentucky.
Every statewide ballot question about reproductive rights since 2022 - seven in all - has yielded victory for abortion rights advocates, including in conservative states such as Ohio, Kansas and Kentucky.
Republican presidential candidates, including frontrunner Donald Trump, have struggled to articulate a position on abortion that would satisfy both the evangelical Christians who comprise a critical Republican voting bloc as well as the swing voters who prefer abortion remain accessible.”
Reuters
3. Ukraine and Israel change
Both allies with get their money, Compromise on immigration reform will cost both parties — no one wins.
4. Younger Voters
Democrats will appeal to younger voters as their democracy is at stake. Biden’s policies toward Palestinians will ultimately yield to humanity.
5. Trump Alternatives
Trump will fail in the court and in public opinion giving way to Republican alternatives. You can’t count Liz Cheney out, as she may steal votes. Biden may well face pressure to appoint a more favorable VP. Deal making.
6. Trump Trials Matter
It will get ugly.
7. Third-party Candidates
Historically, they fail.
8. Attrition
The loss of experienced election officials can make outcomes less clear.
9. Democratic Institutions
They will hold, but not without a fight.
10. Trump Negatives Bolster Biden
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