Prediction Scenarios

No one can tell what the future holds, though I am good at seeing how the future plays out as an analyst. While the whole world is watching Trump-elect fumbling his way forward, it won’t be long before his ball goes out of bounds.

 First, I addressed his economic game plan: Trump wants to levy tariffs on China and others for what?

1. Bringing production back to America

2. Lowering the cost of consumer goods

3. Reducing the trade deficit

How will these things work?

1. Capitalists will not start production in America with substantial investments without government incentives.

2. Even if they do, it might take four years to start and staff new operations.

In the meantime, the cost of consumer products made elsewhere will skyrocket.

3. Americans will have to pay more and buy less—depressing the economy.

Foreign nations will get angry and retaliate, making the trade deficit worse.

Trump will retain the tax cuts for corporations and wealthy Americans. He plans to reduce the regulatory burden on corporations, making Wall Street happy.

    

    However, Boeing is reducing staff by 20,000 jobs. (Not Trump’s doing.) Trump plans to reduce civil service jobs by 50,000. He plans to round up illegals and remove them from the workforce—net 100,000 workforce loss without replacements. 

    Trump's tariff actions against the PRC, Vietnam, and others will drive up the consumer cost of goods and result in 1 million job losses in the retail sector alone. These actions will result not only in a recession but likely a depression.

Next, talk about the wars.

Iran plays more prominently in the headlines because they supply Russia, and they took a poke at Trump. Trump will likely unleash Israel to strike Iran’s military targets and nuclear operations. The Saudis might protest, though, under Trump, they will align with Israel to gain stability.

    China won’t like it, along with tariff actions, however, Trump will reach to Xi to throttle Russia against Ukraine. How will that work? Trump will agree to let China take Taiwan in exchange for a Russian ceasefire and the cessation of the nuclear program in North Korea.

    North Korea won’t like it, except when they see what happened to Iran, they might cool their missiles. 

    Trump might wheel and deal with Russia to let them back into the global fuel market.

    The economic depression created by the US will cause everyone to find a way forward. By the end of Trump's second four years, Democrats will have righted their ship with more middle-leaning policies and embracing their old no-more-wars theme.

Could Trump and his appointees Pass the Senior Executive Service?

James George

Political Science

21 November 2024

Could Trump and his appointees

Pass the Senior Executive Service?

The short answer is no — not Trump nor most of his nominees. In fact, I challenge that most Congressional Representatives and Senators could not pass muster either.

“The Senior Executive Service (SES) leads America’s workforce. As the keystone of the Civil Service Reform Act of 1978, the SES was established to “...ensure that the executive management of the Government of the United States is responsive to the needs, policies, and goals of the Nation and otherwise is of the highest quality.” These leaders possess well-honed executive skills and share a broad perspective on government and a public service commitment grounded in the Constitution.

Members of the SES serve in the key positions just below the top Presidential appointees. SES members are the significant link between these appointees and the rest of the Federal workforce. They operate and oversee nearly every government activity in approximately 75 Federal agencies.

The U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) manages the overall Federal executive personnel program, providing the day-to-day oversight and assistance to agencies as they develop, select, and manage their Federal executives.”

American citizens are honored by having a cadre of well-trained and qualified senior executives who manage complex systems and a workforce that comprises the federal government enterprise.

Trump and his minions have no respect for the workforce and our government, as his and their actions demonstrate. They are unworthy of our trust, and their failure is reason to nullify the election and have a do-over.

https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/senior-executive-service/

Stand Your Ground

Authoritarian Tyranny is Unacceptable

Donald Trump won the election—popular vote and electoral college. However, his candidacy was perverse because he participated in the January 6 insurrection and has subsequently engaged in and advanced a platform that undermines the US Constitution. His persistence in pursuing Project 2025 with corrupt and inappropriate cabinet appointments proves his motives and intentions.

He has no intention of taking an oath to uphold the Constitution. As such, the Democrats and all law-abiding Americans need to pursue the legal course to revoke his presidency and call for a new election with an alternative candidate. 

“Donald Trump Says He Never Swore Oath 'to Support the Constitution'

Published Nov 28, 2023 at 8:16 AM EST”

Trump’s Bet, Congress won’t rein him in

 James George

Political Science

14 November 2024

Trump’s Bet,
Congress won’t rein him in

Trump promised retribution, and that is what he is delivering with cabinet picks. However, now that elections are over, this early test could set the stage for Congress that is not beholding to Trump in the future. Congress must choose democracy and the nation over the dictator. Will they rein him in by rejecting bad choices? If they do, that will put Trump in a box.

How will Trump’s Immigration Policy Work?

James George

Political Science

13 November 2024

How will Trump’s Immigration Policy Work?

When I saw who President Trump appointed as director of Homeland Security, I was shocked and underwhelmed by Kristi Lynn Noem, the former Governor of the “small:” state of South Dakota. Her resume is weak and fails to match what would be expected to manage such an important department.

“Kristi Lynn Noem is an American politician who has served since 2019 as the 33rd governor of South Dakota. Wikipedia

Born: 1971 (age 52 years), Watertown, SD

Spouse: Bryon Noem (m. 1992)

Education: South Dakota State University (2011), Northern State University (1990–1992), Mount Marty University

Party: Republican Party

Children: Kassidy Noem, Kennedy Noem, Booker Noem

Previous offices: Representative, SD At-large District (2011–2019), South Dakota State Representative (2007–2011)”

Next, who is in charge of Immigration Policy?

Stephen Miller is an American political advisor who served as President Donald Trump's senior policy advisor and White House director of speechwriting. His politics have been described as far-right and anti-immigration. He was previously the communications director for then-Senator Jeff Sessions. 

Born: 1985 (age 39 years), Santa Monica, CA

Spouse: Katie Miller (m. 2020)

Education: Duke University (2007), Santa Monica High School (2003)

Parents: Miriam Glosser Miller, Michael Darrow Miller

Height: 5′ 10″

Siblings: Alexis Miller, Jacob Miller

The organization founded America First Legal

Miller is purely political and has zero experience in managing immigration.

Next, Tom Homan is named as the “Immigration Czar.” Bingo, Homan is highly qualified for the job, even if you don’t agree with the task he is charged to perform under Miller’s policy direction and with help from Homeland Security.

How do I know what goes on here? I authored The Management Approach for Securing America at ManTech International for DHS Director Tom Ridge.

Thomas Douglas Homan is an American former police officer, immigration official, and political commentator who served during the Obama administration and will have served in both Trump administrations. 

Born: 1961 (age 62 years), West Carthage, NY

Education: Carthage Central School (1979), SUNY Polytechnic Institute, Jefferson Community College

Parents: Frederick L. Homan, Doris Homan

Deputy: Peter T. Edge (acting)

The problem:

“Homan told Doocy that the Biden administration “has lost over 300,000 children that were smuggled in this country by criminal cartels,” a reference to a debunked campaign claim voiced both by Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance regarding a report published by the Homeland Security Office of Inspector General in August.

According to the report, 291,000 unaccompanied children had not received a notice to appear in court as of May 2024, and a further 32,000 received a notice but did not appear.

Those figures related to nearly 450,000 unaccompanied children released by ICE to the Department of Health and Human Services between October 2018 and September 2023, meaning a number of them were released by the first Trump administration.”—The Hill:  https://thehill.com/latino/4984064-trump-administration-workplace-raids/

On the small scale, I heard him say there are 25,000 illegals targeted first, of which 1500 are proven criminals awaiting deportation. Alright, how will you deport 1500 criminals? That’s simple, right?

Questions:

1. Do you know where the criminals are?
2. If you do, to where (what prison(s) will they be held for removal?
3. Presuming you know their nation of origin (hypothetically 60% Venezuelan and 40% Mexican), what makes you think that the countries of origin will take them back?

4. Even if the original states say they will take them, how will they be transported? By plane? By boat? By ground transportation? 

5. How will the prisoners be kept, cared for, and secured during transport? (Imagine they all have to use the toilet every two hours.)

6. How many law enforcement officers will it take to manage the removal process?

7. When and if they reach their destination, how will the home nations receive them? Will they use firing squads or incarceration?

In this instance, we are talking about 1,500 people. What about the 23,500 people, including children? How is that going to work under the Universal Declaration of Human Rights? Do you ignore the UDHR, which the US is a signatory of? 

The Hill

A Short Essay on Government Waste

As part of my working career, outside of being an entrepreneur, I became a consultant to the Federal government in two ways: 1) as a contractor for a minority-owned 8 (a) business and 2) as a principal and program manager for large corporate contractors. From these vantage points, I had different perspectives on the work and how it was done.

The contracting corporations complied with laws and regulations, including requiring everyone to complete daily timesheets to record their charges against specific contracts. Government inspectors monitored and audited that copious detail. 

When not working on a specific contract, I worked on business development, and that charge went to my employer. Business development included following the government's requests for proposals and the detailed process of qualifying and competing for new work. The effort was often as arduous as performing the actual work. The business development cost was integral to determining the hourly rates charged to the government if the contract was won. Otherwise, the cost was charged as the burden of doing business.

The accounting rules were different between not-for-profit small businesses and large commercial contractors.

In my experience, small and large businesses delivered quality work to the government as required. However, one might question the necessity and value of what the government requested. Elon Musk's focus on behalf of President Trump might be, “Are the requested work and purchases truly required and essential?”

For example, given other priorities, how much is space exploration needed and essential? Can Elon Musk answer that question objectively? 

Image Credit: TED