No one can tell what the future holds, though I am good at seeing how the future plays out as an analyst. While the whole world is watching Trump-elect fumbling his way forward, it won’t be long before his ball goes out of bounds.
First, I addressed his economic game plan: Trump wants to levy tariffs on China and others for what?
1. Bringing production back to America
2. Lowering the cost of consumer goods
3. Reducing the trade deficit
How will these things work?
1. Capitalists will not start production in America with substantial investments without government incentives.
2. Even if they do, it might take four years to start and staff new operations.
In the meantime, the cost of consumer products made elsewhere will skyrocket.
3. Americans will have to pay more and buy less—depressing the economy.
Foreign nations will get angry and retaliate, making the trade deficit worse.
Trump will retain the tax cuts for corporations and wealthy Americans. He plans to reduce the regulatory burden on corporations, making Wall Street happy.
However, Boeing is reducing staff by 20,000 jobs. (Not Trump’s doing.) Trump plans to reduce civil service jobs by 50,000. He plans to round up illegals and remove them from the workforce—net 100,000 workforce loss without replacements.
Trump's tariff actions against the PRC, Vietnam, and others will drive up the consumer cost of goods and result in 1 million job losses in the retail sector alone. These actions will result not only in a recession but likely a depression.
Next, talk about the wars.
Iran plays more prominently in the headlines because they supply Russia, and they took a poke at Trump. Trump will likely unleash Israel to strike Iran’s military targets and nuclear operations. The Saudis might protest, though, under Trump, they will align with Israel to gain stability.
China won’t like it, along with tariff actions, however, Trump will reach to Xi to throttle Russia against Ukraine. How will that work? Trump will agree to let China take Taiwan in exchange for a Russian ceasefire and the cessation of the nuclear program in North Korea.
North Korea won’t like it, except when they see what happened to Iran, they might cool their missiles.
Trump might wheel and deal with Russia to let them back into the global fuel market.
The economic depression created by the US will cause everyone to find a way forward. By the end of Trump's second four years, Democrats will have righted their ship with more middle-leaning policies and embracing their old no-more-wars theme.
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