How to Select an American President: April 2020

7 IN PURUSIT OF A PLEASURABLE OPENING

At the start of this chapter, the American President declared that it his authority to decide when the nation will return to work during the pandemic. The pandemic cycle is not over because there is no vaccine and therapeutics are still under development for the often fatal disease.

States governors disagree with the President, declaring that state and local government officials have the right and responsibility for determining the best course for their jurisdictions. Constitutional lawyers back the governors. The significance is that there remains conflict between the Federal Executive branch, the Congress and the Republic of States.

Chapter 5 listed some actions needed to get the nation moving again. Now, we know there are some additional steps required, and one is called “contact tracing.”

The nation needs to know:

1. Who are actively infected?

2. Who have recovered and have the antibodies?

3. Of those who are sick, with whom have they had contact?

4. Who are eligible to go back to work?

5. Who should be in isolation or quarantine?

The first priority is to get the economy moving again. That requires health professionals and scientists leading with the data that Executives need to make decisions and Congress need to legislate oversight.

“Contact tracing is a process designed to halt the chain of transmission of an infectious pathogen — like the coronavirus — and slow community spread.

When someone tests positive for an infectious disease they become a ‘case.’ Public health workers then reach out to the case, first of all to make sure they have what they need and that they are self-isolating, and then to figure out who they had contact with who may be at risk of infection, too.

‘The whole point of this process is to make sure that people who have the virus are separated from those who don't,’ says Josh Michaud, associate director for global health policy at the Kaiser Family Foundation. ‘That includes the original case, who's isolating, and the contacts who might be incubating the disease. If you get them to self-quarantine before they are infectious, then you've essentially stopped the transmission of that disease from that transmission train. If you do that with enough contacts, then you've effectively interrupted community transmission.’"[1]

One news report on this writing day said that it took four months to wipe out ten years of economic progress.

“10 Years Of Spectacular U.S. Job Growth Nearly Wiped Out In 4 Weeks

April 16, 2020”[2]

What that means to me is that from this day, if the Corona virus was in check, it would take at least two Presidential terms to recover from the calamity. Because the virus is not in check, and it is anticipated that it will take a year for a vaccine to be available and up to six months to administer to the population, the projected economic recovery could take ten to twelve years. I say that because our leadership should be calibrating expectations.

Complicating the recovery is the fact that the Trump administration starved the nation of tax revenue while adding more to the national debt and deficit. Therefore, at best, we will be resetting the clock to 2008 when President Obama inherited an economic catastrophe created by Middle East wars.

Sobering is that America was on the verge of financial collapse. It took all of Obama’s two terms to establish a growing economy. When the Trump administration and Republicans took over, they continued to starve the nation of needed tax revenues by giving windfalls to wealthy persons and corporations. The theory was “trickle down” and that never works.

Conservatives continued to damage the nation by failing to “save for rainy days,” that is stockpiling reserves in the event of an assortment of possible disasters, including the health emergencies. They deprived the nation of essential infrastructure repairs and development.

Make no mistake, opening the economy under careful guidance from health and science professionals will require enormous management expertise. American voters must decide which type of leadership is best under the circumstances. Choices include:

· Conservative Capitalists

· Democratic Socialists

· Authoritarian Presidential Leadership

· Democratic Presidential Leadership

· Constitutional Federalists

· Constitutional States Rightists

· Sustainable Economists

· Liberal Progressive

· Environmentalists

· Unity Governmentalists[3]

The list is not exhaustive and it contains apples and oranges. Labels are not particularly helpful in these times unless they promote clarification and understanding. That requires people to come to terms with what they mean. I will discuss the list as an example of improving understanding.

My mentor and friend, whose views are often my opposite, cringes at the thought of America becoming more socialistic than it already is. He is a self-declared capitalist who resents intrusive government.

On this day at this moment: “New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has hired high-powered consultants to develop a science-based plan for the safe economic reopening of the region, state government sources told Reuters. The governor seeks a plan that can thwart expected pressure from President Donald Trump to move more rapidly to open the economy.”[4]

That news is an instance of the open war between President Trump’s Executive Branch and one of many State governments led by Governors.

Before getting into more analysis, consider the timeline of events that I am quoting from FoxNews, and I verified the information.

01/04	The University of Hong Kong’s Centre for Infection warns that “the city should implement the strictest possible monitoring system for a mystery new viral pneumonia that has infected dozens of people on the mainland, as it is highly possible that the illness is spreading from human to human."
01/06	The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issues a "level 1 travel watch — the lowest of its three levels — for China’s outbreak," according to the University of Minnesota's Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. The CDC said the "cause and the transmission mode aren't yet known, and it advised travelers to Wuhan to avoid living or dead animals, animal markets, and contact with sick people." The CDC also offered to send a team to China, but China declined.
01/08	The World Health Organization (WHO) declares, “Preliminary identification of a novel virus in a short period of time is a notable achievement and demonstrates China’s increased capacity to manage new outbreaks."
01/11	China reports its first coronavirus death.
01/14	The WHO announces, “Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in Wuhan, China.” Meanwhile, according to The Associated Press, internal Chinese documents show that government officials acknowledged likely human-to-human transmission of coronavirus, and said they were following orders from the president of China. Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China.
01/15	Trump and China sign "phase one" of a trade deal to rein in a historic and damaging trade war.
01/17	The CDC and the Department of Homeland Security announce that travelers into the U.S. from Wuhan will undergo new screening at several major airports.
01/19	The WHO hedges somewhat: “Not enough is known to draw definitive conclusions about how it is transmitted, the clinical features of the disease, the extent to which it has spread, or its source, which remains unknown."
01/22	Trump responds to whether he's concerned about a possible pandemic, “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine." Trump was referring to a resident from Snohomish County, Wash., who came back from China on Jan. 15 and was diagnosed with the coronavirus.
01/23	Vox publishes an article stating that travel bans to fight viruses "don't work." The article initially referred to the "Wuhan coronavirus," before being edited weeks later. The article's URL remains unchanged. China seals off Wuhan, canceling plane, train and bus travel. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, says in a Journal of the American Medical Association podcast that the U.S. wouldn't implement shutdowns of cities like what was occurring in China: “There's no chance in the world that we could do that to Chicago or to New York or to San Francisco, but they're doing it. So, let's see what happens.”
01/24	Trump tweets in praise of China’s “transparency." (On April 1, the Biden campaign mocked the president for the tweet, and claimed Biden "publicly" warned Trump not to trust China.) Donald J. Trump✔@realDonaldTrump China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!
01/26	"The American people should not be worried or frightened by this. It's a very, very low risk to the United States," Fauci says on The CATS Roundtable. "It isn't something that the American public needs to worry about or be frightened about."
01/27	The Biden campaign, including its top coronavirus adviser Ron Klain, praise China for being “transparent” and “candid." Speaking to Axios, Klain asserts: "I think what you'd have to say about China is, it's been more transparent and more candid than it has been during past outbreaks, though still there's problems with transparency and candor." Even as he says there were "many" areas in which China hasn't been transparent, Klain says China had helpfully released a "sequence of the virus." Klain says there wasn't "any reason" for anyone to postpone essential travel to anywhere except the Wuhan area.
01/28	Three days before Trump closes off most travel from China, Klain says he opposes that measure.
01/30	CNN publishes a piece by Brandon Tensley entitled, "Coronavirus task force another example of Trump administration's lack of diversity." Tensley, who claims to cover the "intersection of culture and politics," was unable to offer medical analysis in the article. The WHO declares a global health emergency, and the State Department issues advisories against traveling to China. CNN Politics✔@CNNPolitics Coronavirus task force another example of Trump administration's lack of diversity
01/31	Trump issues the "Proclamation on Suspension of Entry as Immigrants and Nonimmigrants of Persons who Pose a Risk of Transmitting 2019 Novel Coronavirus." Later in the day, Biden campaigns in Iowa and tells the crowd that Americans “need to have a president who they can trust what he says about it, that he is going to act rationally about it. ... This is no time for Donald Trump’s record of hysteria and xenophobia – hysterical xenophobia – and fearmongering to lead the way instead of science.” Also in the wake of the ban on Jan. 31: An article in The New York Times quotes epidemiologist Dr. Michael Osterholm as saying that Trump's decision to restrict travel from China was "more of an emotional or political reaction." The Washington Post runs a story quoting a Chinese official asking for "empathy" and slamming the White House for acting "in disregard of WHO recommendation against travel restrictions." Vox tweets: "Is this going to be a deadly pandemic? No." The tweet was deleted weeks later. Canada's health minister Patty Hajdu, who would later say there was no reason to doubt Chinese coronavirus data, says the risk of the virus is "low" and that early-warning systems are working "exactly as they should." The "spread of the disease is contained," Hajdu claimed. Death counts indicated that 213 people had died and nearly 10,000 had been infected.
02/02	"There's a virus that has infected 15 million Americans across the country and killed more than 8,200 people this season alone," CNN tweets. "It's not a new pandemic — it's influenza." Meanwhile, New York City Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot tweets: “As we gear up to celebrate the #LunarNewYear in NYC, I want to assure New Yorkers that there is no reason for anyone to change their holiday plans, avoid the subway, or certain parts of the city because of #coronavirus."
02/05	Over 5,000 passengers on two cruise ships in Asia are ordered into quarantine as the worldwide death toll from the coronavirus reaches 490. The Senate acquits Trump on two counts of impeachment, in a widely expected result that dominated journalists' and politicians' attention for months.
02/07	Barbot strikes again, assuring residents, "We’re telling New Yorkers, go about your lives, take the subway, go out, enjoy life." City lawmakers have called for Barbot to be fired because of the comments.
02/09	Mark Levine, the chair of New York City Council health committee and a Democrat, tweets: "In powerful show of defiance of #coronavirus scare, huge crowds gathering in NYC's Chinatown for ceremony ahead of annual #LunarNewYear parade. Chants of 'be strong Wuhan!' If you are staying away, you are missing out!" Mark D. Levine✔@MarkLevineNYC
02/11	Klain, the Biden adviser, remarks that the evidence "suggests" the coronavirus won't be a "serious pandemic."
02/13	"There are ZERO confirmed cases of coronavirus in New York City, and hundreds of Chinese restaurants that need your business!" the New York City mayor's office tweets. "There is nothing to fear. Stop by any Chinatown for lunch or dinner!"
02/14	France announces Europe's first coronavirus death.
02/17	Fauci announces that the risk of coronavirus infection in the U.S. is "miniscule," according to USA Today. Fauci, one of the top experts in the field and a senior White House coronavirus adviser, also told the paper that people shouldn't wear masks unless they are contagious. (By April 3, Fauci appeared to endorse national stay-at-home orders.)
02/18	In remarks at Joint Base Andrews, Trump states: "I think President Xi is working very hard. As you know, I spoke with him recently. He’s working really hard. It’s a tough problem. I think he’s going to do — look, I’ve seen them build hospitals in a short period of time. I really believe he wants to get that done, and he wants to get it done fast. Yes, I think he’s doing it very professionally. We’re also working with him and helping him, as of the last few days, as you know." Pressed on whether he trusted China's coronavirus data, Trump responds, "Look, I know this: President Xi loves the people of China, he loves his country, and he’s doing a very good job with a very, very tough situation."
02/19	Iran reports two coronavirus cases — the country's first. Hundreds of passengers leave the Diamond Princess for the first time since the quarantine.
02/23	Coronavirus infections surge in Italy and South Korea; authorities in Italy begin locking down towns.
02/24	“It’s exciting to be here, especially at this time, to be able to be unified with our community,” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., tells reporters as she visits San Francisco's Chinatown. “We want to be vigilant about what is out there in other places. We want to be careful about how we deal with it, but we do want to say to people ‘Come to Chinatown, here we are — we're, again, careful, safe — and come join us.'” Also on Feb. 24, the White House submits a request to Congress for $2.5 billion in supplemental spending to help combat the coronavirus outbreak. The request includes $1.25 billion in new money, with the rest coming from unspent funds.
02/28	At a campaign rally, Trump calls Democrats' criticisms of his coronavirus response "their new hoax." Biden and other Democrats then falsely accused Trump of calling the virus itself a hoax. Several fact-checkers, including The Washington Post, make clear that Trump was referring to the Democrats' response to the virus.
02/29	The first coronavirus death in the U.S. is confirmed in Washington state.
03/02	"Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions," New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio tweets. "Here’s the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see 'The Traitor' @FilmLinc. If 'The Wire' was a true story + set in Italy, it would be this film." Bill de Blasio✔@BilldeBlasio Since I’m encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives + get out on the town despite Coronavirus, I thought I would offer some suggestions. Here’s the first: thru Thurs 3/5 go see “The Traitor” @FilmLinc. If “The Wire” was a true story + set in Italy, it would be this film.
03/04	Barbot, the top New York City health official, declares, “There’s no indication that being in a car, being in the subways with someone who’s potentially sick is a risk factor."
03/09	At a Fox News town hall, Bernie Sanders says he would not close the border, even if it were necessary to halt the spread of coronavirus. He then attacked Trump's "xenophobia." Also on this day, Fauci remarks that going to campaign rallies may not be a bad idea: "You know, I can’t comment on campaign rallies. It really depends. We are having as we all said — this is something in motion. This is an evolving thing. So I’m not sure what we’re going to be able to say at the time we’re going to have a campaign rally. If you’re talking about a campaign rally tomorrow, in a place where there is no community spread, I think the judgment to have it might be a good judgment. [But] if you want to talk about large gatherings in a place you have community spread, I think that’s a judgment call, and if someone decides they want to cancel it, I wouldn’t publicly criticize them."
03/11	Trump blocks most travel from continental Europe. Meanwhile, Trump declares a national emergency, authorizing $50 billion in federal funds to go to the states. President Donald Trump speaks about the coronavirus in the Rose Garden of the White House, Wednesday, April 15, 2020, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
03/17	France imposes a nationwide lockdown. European Union leaders agree to mostly seal off the bloc for 30 days.
03/23	Britain imposes a nationwide lockdown.
03/24	India imposes a nationwide lockdown.
03/27	A senior WHO official cuts off an interview after a reporter implies Taiwan, which is not a WHO member state, is independent of China. The official, Canadian doctor Bruce Aylward, initially pretended not to hear the question before terminating the Skype call with the reporter. Trump signs a $2 trillion stimulus bill into law.
03/30	Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C. issue stay-at-home orders, joining other states. In all, approximately 265 million Americans are now under indefinite lockdown.

Table 1: Coronavirus Timeline from FoxNews[5]

What can one conclude from this timeline (even with a FoxNews bias)?

· Chinese scientists, conducting experiments with bats and coronavirus, accidently became contaminated and spread the virus in their community.

· The Chinese government suppressed the scientist who made it public, and ultimately he died from the virus and his colleagues disappeared.

· The CDC was aware, though slow to support travel bans.

· Dr. Fauci and other HHS leaders were slow to grasp the magnitude of the danger and to declare an emergency.

· President Trump was slow to grasp the situation as were members of Congress.

· President Trump acted at once to shutdown travel from China to the US and to get Americans home.

· Many new channels were slow to grasp the severity and confused the public with claims of xenophobia and hysteria.

· Many scientists and medical professionals offered conflicting views.

· The World Health Organization failed on all accounts.

· Some state and local government leaders confused people with statements that gave false assurance.

My assessment is that the Trump administration doesn’t deserve all of the criticism. However, the President’s remarks and erratic behavior throughout, including excessive politicization were not helpful.

Conservative Capitalists

Answering the question, “What is the difference between a conservative and a capitalist?” -- Anthony Stenta, Educator and Scholar of Information wrote in Quora:

“Adam Smith is considered the founder of Capitalism, which he authored the Wealth of Nations. In this he alluded to the "invisible hand." The invisible hand refers to the idea that the markets can self-regulate, without the government. His overall idea is that greed is good, and one’s greed can lead to the personal wealth, but other people's wealth.

He does stress that, which people forget, that as a society we do have to watch out for the "business man" because their personal greed can work against the society as a whole, so self-regulation is a no go.”^{^[6]}

My view is that “conservatism” is a broad idea that implies minimal intrusion by government and society into individual behavior. The idea is that no constraints are better than laws and regulations. As Stenta points out, capitalism is an economic model that embraces unbridled individualism and freedom.

Contradicting that is the US Constitution that deliberately imposes a framework of laws and regulations, and a system for amending, adding, and retiring them.

So, capitalists must get used to the idea that they will be regulated.

Democratic Socialists

According to the Wiki definition: “Democratic socialism is a political philosophy supporting political democracy within a socially owned economy, with a particular emphasis on workers' self-management and democratic control of economic institutions^[2] within a market socialist economy or some form of a decentralized planned socialist economy. Democratic socialists argue that capitalism is inherently incompatible with the values of freedom, equality and solidarity and that these ideals can only be achieved through the realization of a socialist society. Although most democratic socialists seek a gradual transition to socialism, democratic socialism can support either revolutionary or reformist politics as means to establish socialism. As a term, it was popularized by social democrats who were opposed to the authoritarian socialist development in Russia and elsewhere during the 20th century.”[7]

Therein are “red flags.” I don’t think that leaders and citizens who embrace social responsibility while balancing economic and environmental concerns are all that radical. As a maturing nation, America has come to grips with the need to attend to senior citizens, and poor people with compassion and assistance. We have learned to address shared needs such as health care with a sense of pursuing the common good. The same goes for education and equal opportunity.

The term is an unnecessary boogieman that I don’t think is helpful.

Authoritarian Presidential Leadership

President Trump has branded himself into a corner, being an authoritarian in a system that thwarts that behavior.

“Favoring or enforcing strict obedience to authority, especially that of the government, at the expense of personal freedom.”[8]

When American voters elected a President with severe character and personality flaws, there is no opportunity for correction except impeachment. Underlying the deficient character, the incumbent has no managerial experience suitable to leading a very large bureaucratic enterprise that is the Federal Government. Having no experience in elected office before, further inhibits his ability to perform successfully.

The capitulation by his Republican Party members is a failure to guide their leader and to mitigate his flaws. Thus, Trump’ propensity toward being authoritarian puts his administration out of step with the Democratic Republic.

Democratic Presidential Leadership

By contrast with “authoritarian” leadership style.

“Renewed calls for democracy make it imperative that we understand the nature of democratic leadership. Existing definitions of democratic leadership are inconsistent and inadequate, so this essay provides a clear definition that applies to social groups both large and small. As defined herein, democratic leadership is conceptually distinct from positions of authority; rather, it is defined as the performance of three functions: distributing responsibility among the membership, empowering group members, and aiding the group's decision-making process. Many, most, or all members of a group serve these functions, regularly exchanging the roles of leader and follower.”[9]

Digging up an old study on the subject highlights the actions expected of a President of the United States serving in our Democratic Republic:

1. Acknowledging that authority is distributed among those who have functional responsibility, i.e., with expertise in their domain.

2. Empowering those to whom responsibility is delegated and respecting their ability and expertise.

3. Managing the decision-making process, and then ultimately, deciding.

It is the process that becomes most important toward achieving desired and required outcomes.

Constitutional Federalists

“The supporters of the proposed Constitution called themselves "Federalists." Their adopted name implied a commitment to a loose, decentralized system of government. ... For Federalists, the Constitution was required in order to safeguard the liberty and independence that the American Revolution had created.”[10]

Constitutional States Rightists

The Heritage Foundation offers this point of view.

“The truth of the matter is that our Constitution, as we know it today, may be seen in retrospect to contain a number of inherent flaws, flaws that conservatives have or should have observed with profound dismay long before the New Deal Court and its successors made them abundantly obvious. When we speak of the Constitution, of course, we are speaking not merely of the Constitution of 1787, but of the entire Constitution as amended - the original Constitution and the twenty-six amendments that have been added since 1791. Whereas the original Constitution and the Bill of Rights (as originally understood) have enjoyed the universal acclaim of thoughtful conservatives, a number of amendments, particularly the 14th, have proved to be anathema not only to conservative political values, but also to limited government'.[11]

“Citizenship Rights, Equal Protection, Apportionment, Civil War Debt

Passed by Congress June 13, 1866. Ratified July 9, 1868. The 14th Amendment changed a portion of Article I, Section 2. A portion of the 14th Amendment was changed by the 26th Amendment.”

“The Text of the 26th Amendment

The right of citizens of the United States, who are eighteen years of age or older, to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of age. Section 2. The Congress shall have the power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation.”[12]

The US Constitution allows for the creation of new laws and regulations, changes, and deletions through due process. That makes it a living and breathing document reflective of contemporary needs and times. Some might call that “progressive.”

Sustainable Economists

“We need a new economic model – a model that benefits people and planet.

Last month, 200 CEOs redefined the purpose of a corporation: no longer would shareholders have primacy. Companies should be run for the benefit of all stakeholders – customers, employees, suppliers, communities and shareholders. This is the same idea – the multi-stakeholder theory – that underpinned the founding of the World Economic Forum in 1971. As we face an unprecedented environmental crisis, the idea is taking firmer hold. A recent survey of CEOs found 90% believe sustainability is important to their companies’ business success. Behavioural economists now believe that the entire premise of classical economics – that people will always act in their own self-interest – is wrong.”[13]

I wrote Regenerating America with Sustainable Economics © 2017 Archway Publishing to describe in detail the foundation for the Optimized Sustainment Model as a replacement for unsustainable capitalism.[14]

Liberal Progressive

“Liberal-Progressive was a label used by a number of candidates in Canadian elections between 1925 and 1953. In federal and Ontario politics, there was no Liberal-Progressive party: it was an alliance between two parties. In Manitoba, a party existed with this name.”[15]

Somewhere along the line, Americans decided to call themselves “liberal” versus “conservatives.” Somewhere, the term “liberal” became associated with alignment with social values and attention to shared needs and equality.

Environmentalists

“plural noun: environmentalists

1. a person who is concerned with or advocates the protection of the environment. "the environmentalist movement"

Similar:

conservationist

preservationist

ecologist

green

nature-lover

eco-activist

eco-nut

ecofreak

tree hugger

2. a person who considers that environment, as opposed to heredity, has the primary influence on the development of a person or group.”[16]

Unity Governmentalist

Orchestrating national unity is a common theme heard around the world in variable levels of intensity over time. When government and citizens are severely stressed by disasters and economic strife, the intensity rises as people want and expect leadership to coalesce to meet their needs.

The extreme partisanship in America collided with the pandemic and the outcome will get sorted in Election 2020.

The term may also be associated with “intergovernmentalist” that describes the European Union.

[1] https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/14/833726999/how-contact-tracing-can-help-fight-coronavirus

[2] https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/16/835135924/10-years-of-spectacular-u-s-job-growth-nearly-wiped-out-in-4-weeks