3 FALLING FORWARD
America was taken down by a pandemic, although all things are equal. That means, the entire planet is in the same boat. Everyone wants a vaccine and improved medical therapies to treat the viral infection, so that people can get back to working and living again. That process can be accelerated by a smart strategy that pools the data to drive scientific processes. In a capitalist world in which “Big Pharma”[1] has a wayward hand, governments must intercede, such that collaboration is rewarded, risks mitigated, and profits assured. Capitalism is the norm and it is not patriotic.
At the time of this writing, the world is still collapsing, reaching the apex of the calamity in densely populated cities in waves among nations. In the US, the first “hot spots” were Seattle, Washington and New York City and followed by California, Michigan, Louisiana, and Florida among others. The tsunami has yet to settle.
The US economy is turned off to a trickle. Without revenue flowing, the nation will die from a depression. Therefore, the first order of business is to create an environment with mitigated risk so that people can return to work.
The first stone on the proverbial path forward is getting up and out from the relative safety and security of our home shelters to return to the streets of commerce. To accomplish that requires strong central leadership from the Federal Government in concert with States’ Governments. Thereupon, we encounter our first topical challenge.
Presidential Election 2020: Parties, Platforms, Candidates and Manifestos
Honestly, Americans face a problem that is insurmountable in the near term. That is, political parties are dysfunctional and deficient, lacking common standards governing their performance as nonprofit corporations.
“Political parties; campaign committees for candidates for federal, state or local office; and political action committees are all political organizations under IRC § 527. Among other requirements, most tax-exempt political organizations have a requirement to file periodic reports on Form 8872 with the IRS.”[2]
“A 527-organization or 527 group is a type of U.S. tax-exempt organization organized under Section 527 of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code (26 U.S.C. § 527). A 527 group is created primarily to influence the selection, nomination, election, appointment or defeat of candidates to federal, state or local public office.”[3]
I write about this in detail in my book: A President’s Manifesto ©2019 All Rights Reserved.
The Presidential Election 2020 primary process is already disrupted by the pandemic with voting schedules postponed, and candidates unable to have physical rallies due to self-distancing requirements. The National Conventions are likely to be disrupted in form, as people will continue to be told to keep their distance and to avoid large groups.
President Trump has already been impeached by the House of Representatives though not convicted by the Senate. His performance as the incumbent managing the pandemic is evaluated in real time by voters.
The relationship between the House and Senate is viewed as partisan. Only after the pandemic struck has Congress come together to pass emergency legislation.
Before that, the economy appeared to be running smoothly. Although there are red flags: wages are stagnant and the national debt and deficit loom large. There is a revenue shortfall that is now exasperated by the pandemic disaster. Add to that a nation that will have been virtually out of work for months.
Which political party’s platform aligns moreclosely with America’s needs?
Which candidate manifestos align closely with their host party and contains details about the way ahead for the next term(s) of office, four to eight years?
Which candidates post the best resumes, vetted and verified?
Which candidates possess the best behavioral characteristics suited for the job at this moment in history?
I offer my book, How to Select an American President by James A. George and James A. Rodger © 2107 as a guide to evaluating candidates. At the moment of this writing, it appears that the leading candidates for President, incumbent and Trump and former Vice President Biden are 73 and 77 years, respectively. Trump will not be eligible for another term, and Biden will be too old. That means that Americans will be short-changed by not having a Democratic candidate with a full eight-year potential if Biden is the candidate.
Addressing the problems emanating from the lack of standards for parties and their candidates must be a stone on the path forward. Yet, it won’t be the first step.
The Democratic Party may be conducting a virtual convention at a time when former Vice President, Joe Biden appears to be the leading candidate. However, there are forces under foot that may wish to advance a younger candidate whose name was not among the primary candidates such as New York Governor, Andrew Cuomo, whose leadership skills became apparent during the pandemic. One can imagine how topsy-turvy the process might become.
According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, the White House Infectious Disease expert, “If you want to get to pre-coronavirus , that might never happen in the sense of the fact that the threat is there,” he said, “but I believe with the therapies that will be coming online and the fact that I feel confident that over a period of time, we will get a good vaccine, we will never have to get back to where we are right now.”
While his declaration is promising, he also suggested getting back to life the way life was before the spread of COVID-19 might not happen until a vaccine.
“If back to normal means acting like there never was a coronavirus problem, I don’t think that is going to happen until we have a situation where you can completely protect the population,” Fauci said. [4]
Economic Recession
The second topical challenge is the economy. The Guardian has already declared that this is not a recession, Europe and the EU are in a depression. “We think of a depression as even worse than a recession – as a sustained, long-term downturn in economic activity in one or more economies. A depression is generally deeper and longer lasting than a recession.”[5]
When Europe’s economy is depressed, so goes the world that is interconnected as the global market and supply chain. Trade wars were already bubbling before the calamity.
Historically, economic strife can lead to wars, and sometimes, it can result in improved relations.
As I write, the Russians sent ventilators and medical supplies to New York City with their planes landing here. China also sent critically needed medical instruments and medicines. These are indications of willingness to be partners and not warriors.
“The U.S. on Wednesday night welcomed a Russian shipment of medical supplies, part of an effort by the State Department to source priority goods needed to combat the coronavirus from other countries.”[6]
“White House Airlifts Medical Supplies From China in Coronavirus Fight
Officials have teamed up with medical supply companies to speed the arrival of masks, gloves, gowns and other goods.”[7]
President Trump met with oil producers to help manage slumping oil sales and the economic consequences.
“Washington’s efforts to broker a truce between Saudi Arabia and Russia appear to be making progress, with Riyadh calling for an urgent meeting of the OPEC-plus alliance “and other countries” to end the chaos in the global oil market.”[8]
Getting out of the economic hole demands concerted leadership from the Federal government and corporate partners. The key to recovery is getting people back to work and to reignite the retail engine, that is consumer-driven.
From the last economic calamity in 2008 and from history, one can anticipate that this recovery may take eight to ten years.
The flagstone for the recovery will be laid by the next President and Congress. American’s must select a government that most closely aligns with the working population and with leaders who understand the necessity of developing a sustainable economy. For readers wanting to understand sustainable economics in more detail, I recommend my book, Regenerating America with Sustainable Economics © 2107 Archway Publishing.
Global Economy and Trade
The third topical challenge is Global Economy and Trade. The present Pandemic disaster underscores how dependent the US is on foreign suppliers of essential products, including medical instruments and medicines.
Peter Navarro is the Director of the Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy is appointed by President Trump to manage the Defense Production Act[ 9] initiative during the pandemic.
“Navarro's views on trade are significantly outside the mainstream of economic thought, and are widely considered fringe and misguided by other economists. A strong proponent of reducing U.S. trade deficits, Navarro is well known as a critic of Germany and China and has accused both nations of currency manipulation. He has called for increasing the size of the American manufacturing sector, setting high tariffs, and "repatriating global supply chains". He is also a strong opponent of the North American Free Trade Agreement and Trans-Pacific Partnership. With U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, Navarro developed an infrastructure development plan for the candidacy and presidency of Donald Trump.”[10]
In this book, I am trying hard not to take political sides. However, when it comes to championing the return of “Manufacturing America,” I am for it. While serving as a consultant to the Department of Defense and the Defense Logistics Agency for more than a decade, I reported consistently the concern that America is highly vulnerable having lost manufacturing knowledge, skill and experience. Manufacturing and the associate engineering is crucial to creating and sustaining an upward mobile workforce.
Being able to invent, design, engineer and produce manufactured consumer products of all kinds for sale in the global market is essential to national security. Current deficiencies are a problem that must be fixed quickly. The pandemic is helping bring this to light with being unable to produce medical instruments, medicines, and supplies on demand that are made in the USA.
The vulnerability is magnified by America being unable to produce computer products and technologies. We can invent it, but we can’t produce it. We must be able to protect intellectual property and invention.
My experience in this matter is from having been a publisher of computer and manufacturing technology magazines for the Hitchcock Division of the American Broadcasting Companies. All of our magazines eventually folded because manufacturing in America collapsed.
· Infosystems Magazine
· Assembly Engineering Magazine
· Machine & Tool Bluebook
· Quality Magazine
· Industrial Finishing Magazine
· Manufacturing Systems Magazine
Each represented markets that were once vibrant sectors. American government policy-makers abandoned them and let the foreign competition take over at the expense of American workers. I went on to advocate electronic business and electronic commerce, though not as a substitute for those critical industries left in the dust by bad decision making and leadership.
Trading partnerships with foreign producers and customers are essential in a global marketplace. However, the way ahead must include the element of strategy that secures the nation from extraordinary vulnerability
National Security: Allies and Enemies
“’The U.S. was beset by denial and dysfunction as the coronavirus raged’
From the Oval Office to the CDC, political and institutional failures cascaded through the system and opportunities to mitigate the pandemic were lost.”[11]
Unfortunately, America’s national integrity is shaken by the pandemic event and by how the Federal Government managed the response. Obvious to anyone following the facts, the Trump administration was unprepared and dithered, losing precious time to save lives and to mitigate the effect on the economy.
The constant bashing of allies and taunting of enemies by the executive branch does not encourage desirable outcomes.
To be certain, America’s enemies are nation states that fail to uphold human rights as defined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. [12] In the judgment of this author, the UDHR is the cornerstone of the way forward for all humanity. It is the essential first step and even over towers the US Constitution itself.
What is to be done with North Korea and Iran, for instance? How are sectarian-based governments to be treated, included Saudi Arabia and Israel, for instance? How are displaced persons to be managed where their populations exceed resource sustainability?
Economic development and diplomacy are the preferred ways forward along the path. These issues must be addressed in political party platforms in individual candidate manifestos.
Manufacturing America
I called it out again, regaining manufacturing capabilities in America means restoring engineering and trade crafts in all industry sectors. Doing so restores vital abilities that provide an upward mobile foundation for economic progress. Reengineering how America lives and works under a renewable energy paradigm should excite geniuses to develop a new landscape for the future.
Geniuses, Entrepreneurism and Governance
A pleasurable future for all rests on the brainy outcomes from geniuses at the intersection of entrepreneurism and governance.
From my book, How to Select an American President © 2017, I recreated the resumes of all former US Presidents and described their backgrounds before their elections. Every one of America’s Founding Fathers might be considered geniuses. Every one of America’s early Presidents were highly intelligent. The most intelligent is thought to be Ben Franklin. He was never elected president, though he contributed much to creating the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.
“Thomas Jefferson was a genius and he was also an eccentric. It didn’t really matter that he was odd in his own time, because the average American didn’t really know anything about Jefferson, except perhaps that he was the author of the Declaration of Independence, lived on a mountain in Virginia, and was more for the people than most of the other politicians of his time.”[13]
Former Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher was a chemist. Former President Jimmy Carter was a nuclear engineer. German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, was quantum chemist. Pope Francis is a chemist. [14]
I can only theorize that nations (America) might be best served by electing geniuses. It makes sense to me that when geniuses, entrepreneurs, and government collaborate for the good of citizens that the outcome will be desirable, and that more “requirements” will be met. It takes a partnership that is public and private enterprises and government entities working together.
Dan Appleton might declare that as the “As-is” situation and the current normal. I suggest that if that is the case, it is purely accidental. Needed is a more purposeful strategy.
The As-Is model describes the present state of the organization's process, culture, and capabilities. The To-Be model describes the future state; in other words, how the organization's process, culture, and capabilities will appear in the future.
Future State Ingredients
A future state, as I envision, will include:
· Predominate application of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights in all matters, foreign and domestic
· Standards for political parties and candidates for elected offices
· A new model for sustainable economies with an improved balance of consequences
· An amended Constitution with laws that remove undue influence from campaign contributions and special interests, foreign and domestic
· Acknowledgment that America is an integral part of global trade and commerce and that the rule of law is borderless
· Commitment to US citizen priorities as defined here
· Ensuring National Security by supporting a domestic industrial base
· A commitment to Manufacturing America and to all trades and crafts
· Adopting policies that promote invention and protect intellectual property
· Adopting policies that encourage intellectual development and education across the spectrum of geniuses and the general population
· Re-engineering how the branches of government work, leveraging digital communications and technologies
· Strengthening the commitment to national cybersecurity
· Transforming America to renewable energy
· Transforming all aspect of how we live and work under a sustainable paradigm
I am not a genius, though as an average citizen can understand the immediate situation and can imagine the future as my grandsons might experience it. That is with wishful thinking.
The purpose of this book is to describe a suggested path toward an improved end-state, where the current crop of geniuses must engage and lead to shape the outcomes. They will do something ad hoc, or they might become more strategic. The new normal is always on a roll.
[1] Blaskiewicz , Robert (2013). "The Big Pharma conspiracy theory". Medical Writing. 22 (4): 259. doi : 10.1179/2047480613Z.000000000142.
The term Big Pharma is used to refer collectively to the global pharmaceutical industry. According to Steve Novella the term has come to connote a demonized form of the pharmaceutical industry.
[4] https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/coronavirus/dr-fauci-return-to-normal-will-be-gradual-but-life-may-look-different-until-vaccine-is-ready
[8] https://www.forbes.com/sites/daneberhart/2020/04/03/pressure-from-president-trump-market-spurs-new-talk-of-oil-cuts--among-producers/#2f0b105c6f5c
[9] The Defense Production Act of 1950 (Pub. L. 81–774) is a United States federal law enacted on September 8, 1950 in response to the start of the Korean War.[1] It was part of a broad civil defense and war mobilization effort in the context of the Cold War. Its implementing regulations, the Defense Priorities and Allocation System (DPAS), are located at 15 CFR §§700 to 700.93. Since 1950, the Act has been reauthorized over 50 times.[1] It has been periodically amended and remains in force.
[10] Rogin , Josh (February 27, 2018). "How Peter Navarro Got His Groove Back". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 1,2018.
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