Thursday, April 16, 2020

America's Next Steps, Chapter 5

5 MOVEMENT

What would make people happier than sharing a good life with everyone in a sustainable economy?      I have written before what I postulate as American citizens’ priorities, the best that I can logically determine. I published the list in articles and blogs and in my other books as a means of public vetting. Here they are again.

Outcomes and Metrics

1.      Nation secured economically
2.      Nation has a sustainable economy
3.      Nation secured militarily
4.      Homeland secured from terrorists and secured from disasters (including pandemics)
5.      Employment opportunities for all who can work aligned with their abilities
6.      All citizens provided minimum sustainability as a baseline to start
7.      Upward mobility for all who are prepared and earn it
8.      Social security assured for all citizens
9.      Clean air and clean water
10.   Best education system in the world with access for all
11.   Freest nation in the world
12.   Lowest crime rate in the world

American voters expect 100% security and performance in these essential outcomes. What do candidates and their parties have to say about present performance and about the ability to achieve these results? (I digress.)
The pandemic brought the global economy to a screeching halt. All nations and their governments, and all citizens are dependent on their respective economies “moving” as Dan Appleton said.
Dan and are having a daily dialogue because what else is there to do during our respective pandemic lockdown and isolation?  He suggested that I might frame the conversation as a dialogue between Socrates and Plato’s brother, Glaucon[1] whereby we are in a cave tossing around ideas. I like the metaphor except, I am no Socrates, being an average Jim just trying to make sense of things.
Dan suggested a dynamic where I “contrast his (Glaucon’s) economic arguments against government rule of individual behavior by saying that the pandemic demonstrates how important government is and how it is capable of creating vast wealth when the challenge is to solve enormous problems.
In other words, setting the stage for Sustainment by explaining how only government is capable of solving really big problems while capitalism is good at solving petty ‘little market demand problems.’”
Playing the role of Socrates, I am supposed to explain that while today, “the problem is global pandemic, the remaining super problem is global warming. Opening the country to allow capitalism back in must be carefully managed by government to ensure that the super problem is solved, too. So, like Marx tells us that Socialism is merely a step on the road to the virtues of Communism, the ‘Chinese virus’ is merely a step on the road Sustainment. It proves the liberal argument that government must control individual behavior (China being the role model) to save everyone and money is not important when the welfare of humanity is threatened.”
Dan, you are putting words into Socrates mouth. I didn’t say that, exactly. I agree with him that Trump-bashing is trivial and no longer relevant. I promise to edit the text to wash away as much political bias as possible.
Dan suggests, “Better to just allegorically relegate him to minor status, just bit player on the global stage who has been forced by the realities of the pandemic to use government to solve the big problems by controlling individual behavior and inventing money. He has been forced to acknowledge that the Platonic Form of the relationship between government and capitalism is Social Democracy. You could say that Trump has inadvertently demonstrated the validity of the social democratic argument that big government, not capitalism, is the answer to big problems like pandemics and global warming.”
I could not have framed that argument so succinctly, without my mentor, Glaucon.
I would like to sweep up a couple of terms that might be called “liberal baiting.” As a “liberal,” I am expected to become defensive about both terms.
One is “global warming,” and the other is “big government.” In my writing, I never fell into the “global warming” trap. Not that I don’t believe it. Instead, I address keeping the air I breath and water I drink healthy and clean. I want to protect the environment for those practical reasons.
I don’t like the term “big government,” that implies government being excessively interventionist and intruding into all aspects of the lives of its citizens. Being members of shared space and communities, while tending to matters that are of the greater good necessitates that we citizens employ “our” government appropriately, affordably, and affectionately. It is our instrument.
Therein, that is what Dan calls a “head scratching” moment that begs more explanation than I want to devote to the subject at this moment. Suffice it to say that the Constitution established our government and the republic of states. If you love the Constitution does it not follow to love our government as we love our flag? There remains that pesky issue of individual freedom and how much is enough?

The focus of this chapter is how the nation will get moving again?
The immediate priorities are as follows:
1.      Routinely test the population for coronavirus (COVID-19) to identify any new breakouts
2.      Deploy new and improved therapeutic medicine and procedures to mitigate the disease from becoming catastrophic
3.      Maintain the inventory of hospital bed and staff capacity to address the potential emergence
4.      Maintain the proper stockpiles of medical supplies at all levels of government and private sector
5.      Establish a health care screening and management system to protect the workforce and general public until there is a vaccine
6.      When there is a vaccine, deploy nationwide immunization

At the appropriate time as determined by medical and scientific professionals and in concert with the President, bring the nation’s businesses and workforce back online. Author, Tom Friedman said that now is the time for a “national unity government.” That sounds like a good theme.

I am about the business of planting a flag in the future and defining a path to arrive at that destination, the “Altar of Sustainability.”
My presumption is that capitalists will do their best to coax the US government to get people back to work, and to make the system flush with sufficient cash to get it moving again. “Make America Move Again” might be a good unifying theme right after, “Make Us Well and Get Over It.”



Nation Secured Economically


America’s capitalist engine is intact. Economic policies intend to optimize the domestic commercial environment. Trade policies intend to level the competitive field in the global arena.
Economists and bankers are concerned about currency and the rules governing valuation such that it is “fair,” consistent, and stable. Government is concerned about debt and deficit spending.
Those in the US Defense Industry have long had an office of industrial policy.
“The Industrial Policy office supports the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment by providing detailed analyses and in-depth understanding of the increasingly global, commercial, and financially complex industrial supply chain essential to our national defense.”[2]
Dan Appleton and I have both worked with that office on occasion throughout our careers. The supply chain is global and there is much give and take in considerations governing it. Defense product customers are international and the defense sales contribute more to the positive trade balance and GDP than anything else.
Often, defense customers (foreign governments) want to be a part of the supply chain too. Those relationships also affect commercial business.
The US is greatly dependent on China as a supplier and as a customer. China supplies medical products while buying US agricultural products. While China is not aligned with US free-world values, and often assumes potentially hostile military positions in its region, they are trading partners just the same.
The immediate concern is to reignite the retail sector in the US economy. The executive and legislative branches are working in a bipartisan manner to provide economic relief and to stimulate resumption when it is safe to do so.
Brought to light during the pandemic is US overdependence on foreign suppliers and deficiencies in US production capabilities. With appropriate US Industrial policy, including tax policy, it is possible to increase US production capability and to expand jobs in the manufacturing sector. An entire book could be devoted to that topic alone.

Nation has a Sustainable Economy


Here is where Appleton and I stumble with the term, “Sustainable.” I want to emphasize the sustainable does not mean the end of capitalism. It might men, making capitalism sustainable which today, I argue it is not. It means being able to be maintained at a certain rate or level.
What make economies unsustainable? Here’s a list:
·       Dependence on fossil fuels that are running empty and for which the continued use endangers the environment
·       Populations continuing to expand where resources will not support them
·       Citizen needs for economic security are not met, and workers suffer from unbridled capitalists who sacrifice their wellbeing for profit taking
·       The notion of ever-expanding markets and endless consumption
Achieving economic sustainability requires:
·       Economic policy that balances economic, social, and environmental responsibilities
·       Social policies that ensure economic security for those in need, and for senior citizens
·       Social policies the ensure affordable health care for all Americans
·       Social policies that ensure free or affordable education for all Americans based on means
·       Renewable energy policy
·       Embracing the long-held idea that the nation’s economy is a partnership between government and private enterprise where government creates an ideal environment in which individuals and their corporations can optimize their performance in a globally competitive environment
In the event of a catastrophic emergency, the idea of a “Universal Basic Income (UBI)” was floated as a possible remedy:
“Just a year ago, the argument for “universal basic income” (UBI) still seemed a fringe theory. It was the pet project of a coterie of libertarian academics and some left-wing activists, and the subject of an economic experiment among a small group of people in Finland. The idea that governments should cut a monthly check to every citizen was largely scoffed at by mainstream conservatives ideologically opposed to handouts (that is, at least, to average citizens) and rankled left-leaning intellectuals, who were wary of diverting resources from already cash-strapped, means-tested programs for the poor.[3]

Securing the Nation Militarily


“Military policy (also called defense policy) is public policy dealing with international security and the military. It comprises the measures and initiatives that governments do or do not take in relation to decision-making and strategic goals, such as when and how to commit national armed forces.”[4]
Forty-three percent of the military budget is driven by State Department Foreign Policy.[5] Wars in the Middle East have consumed enormous amounts of US capital resources. That is why both political parties advocated a calculated withdraw and a return to sanctions and diplomacy against rogue nations.
Some argue that the main reason why the US is in the Middle East is to protect the flow of oil.
Consistent since the 1990’s, threats to national security include:
1.      The rapid growth of weapons of mass destruction, such as nuclear bombs
2.      Regional conflicts in the Middle East, Korea, and elsewhere
3.      The emergence of anti-democratic forces in Russia
4.      The erosion of American economic strength
Estimated U.S. military spending is $934 billion. It covers the period October 1, 2020, through September 30, 2021.
This topic is too broad and deep to be addressed in this book.

Securing the Homeland from Terrorists and Natural Disasters


Securing the national borders is a fundamental requirement, that is knowing who are coming and going. Making certain that visitors and immigrants arrive legally and honor their status.
Stockpiling for emergencies of all kind, including weather events and pandemics is a requirement.
At the heart of it are law enforcement elements and logistics management.
This is another subject that is too broad and deep for addressing in this book.

Guaranteed Minimum Sustainability


This topic is one that is central to the purpose of the book. That is, address sustainability from the bottom up.
In my book, Regenerating America with Sustainable Economics © 2017 Archway Publishing I wrote:
In a free market economy, citizen consumers and their corporations make choices that effect the economy. Governments from local to state and the federal government have an impact.
Governments provide services. Examples include:
·       US Postal Service
·       Federal, State, County, and City Highway Construction and Maintenance
·       Public Education
·       Police and Fire
Regulation and Control. Examples include:
·       Public Utilities
·       Permitting
·       Price controls
·       Food and Drug Administration
·       Consumer Protection
·       Environmental Protection
·       Fair Trade
·       Banking
·       Public Safety
Stabilization and Growth. Examples include:
·       Federal Reserve
Direct assistance: Examples include:
·       Tariffs
·       Farm Aid
·       Grants to low-income parents with dependent children
·       Medical care for the aged and indigent,
·       Social insurance programs for unemployed and retirees
·       Relief for the poor and disabled

Humanity lives in states of nature. People born in the USA inherit what is potentially one of the best environments for self-sustainment. Bear in mind that we live as citizens of the world, and not just as citizens of a nation.
“Self-sustainment” means having the ability to support oneself. That is a starting position. In America today, what is the basic essential investment required to support a person who has completed high school?
·       Income
·       Expenses
·       Clothing
·       Food and water
·       Shelter and utilities
·       Transportation
·       Education and training

The sources of capital to cover expenses include performing work, job, vocation, and profession. Initially, a poor start is with work of any kind. That may improve and progress commensurate with education, training, and experience based upon individual determination and ambition.

Performance Issues, Attributes, Improvement Potential
·       Ensure that basic needs are met: sleep, hunger, thirst, warmth, shelter, protection, safety, security, stability.
·       Ensure that people have education and training that will equip them with skill, knowledge, experience and proficiency to obtain upward mobile employment opportunities commensurate with personal motivation, initiative, and development.
·       Ensure that people perform as responsible citizens in society with regard for social, moral, and environmental accountability.
·       Government acting in concert with individuals and corporations seek to ensure these things to a level of 100% assurance.
·       Personal performance and individuals living up to their potential is up to them.
Government, corporations, and individuals are not perfect. There will be deficiencies in performance. The outcome is a product of a partnership of stakeholder citizens. The end state is to emphatically eliminate the gap between deficient performance and the ideal end state that is a sustainable economy.

Upward Mobility


Economic performance of the American style is a product of individuals, public and private enterprise partnership whereby government creates the optimal environment in which individuals and corporations perform.
Deficiencies are indicated today by various measures:
·       Employment rate
·       Debt and deficit spending and financing
·       Revenue shortfall
·       Excess costs
·       Deficient upward mobile job opportunity
·       Unsustainable energy sources
·       Air and water quality
·       Climate warming and the consequences
·       Poverty
·       Social services obligations exceeding revenues
·       Taxation rates
·       Exogenous threats to national/homeland security
·       Underemployed genius

Opportunity addressability is an important concept as it relates to equality. There must be sufficient opportunity to ensure upward mobile equality.
Is the extreme concentration of wealth in America, and the shrinking opportunity for citizens’ access to quality jobs with upward mobile potential a problem? More consideration needs to be given to the nature of work and how persons are rewarded for their contribution to society in four dimensions:
1.      Self-sustainment
2.      Social responsibility
3.      Environmental responsibility
4.      Invention and innovation that creates products and job opportunities

Social Security Assured for all Citizens


There must be a mechanism for ensuring economic security for all citizens. Social Security and Medicare are effective today. However, looming is a population size and demographic that threaten sustainability of the As-Is system. Needed is urgent attention, not to parry the problem and hide it, but to produce well-engineered legislation and systems that ensure it with no uncertainty.

Clean Air and Water


The planet may be warming and adding to the temperature are people, overpopulating and burning fossil fuels to fire their production and consumption. Needed are clean and renewable energy sources. That is a product of intelligent consumers demanding it.
Capitalists might relish the opportunity to invent and develop new energy products and services. Are they lacking incentives? Is punishing fossil fuel users and producers not enough?
One might think it is a pleasure to participate in a market that is so rewarding and self-fulfilling.
The climate may go on about changing as scientists tell us it evolves. That is not the topic nor debate, at least in my book.

Best Education System in the World


America’s education system is ripe for change and improvement, and the pandemic will have an influence over that. Schooling and social distancing will likely intersect. Greater application of computer technology is certain.
Behavioral interaction will continue to be a necessity and a challenge for educators.
How should we measure the outcome? This is another huge topic that deserves separate treatment. While research I discovered “Measuring education: What data is available?” by Max Roser, February 23, 2018:

“The main difference here is to distinguish between the gross and the net rate:
·       Gross rates take into account all children at a given level of education regardless of their age and relate these to the population of the age group which officially corresponds to that level of education.
o   The advantage is that the numerator includes all children at the particular level of education. The downside is that there cannot be a corresponding denominator. One option would be to express it relative to the entire population (which is sometimes done for tertiary education), but an often more informative – albeit not perfect option – is to express it relative to the population in the official age-bracket for that level of education. For this reason gross rates can exceed 100%.
·       Net rates only take into account those children who are in the official age group for a given level of education in both the numerator and denominator.
o   The advantage of net rates is that children within the same age bracket are compared and it is therefore not possible that the net rate exceeds 100%. The disadvantage is that not all children in a particular level of education are considered in net rates – those that are older or younger than the official age group are not considered in this measure.”[6]

Like it or not, the US Education system is not the best in the world, not even close. You can do your own research to discover the truth.
“The US was once a leader for healthcare and education — now it ranks 27th in the world, Aria Bendix, Sep 27, 2018.[7]
I postulate that a nation that is not among the best at educating its citizens cannot continue to hold onto economic leadership. Failing in education superiority is an indication of a failing economy and nation.
A nation that is one-eighth the size of China needs to produce a higher percentage of well-educated and able citizens per capita in order to compete.

Freest Nation in the World


“In 2012, the freest countries/regions were New Zealand (8.7), the Netherlands (8.5), and Hong Kong SAR, (8.3). ... Highest ranking in personal freedoms were the Netherlands (9.5) and United States (8.19). In 2019, United States has dropped to number 5 according to The Human Freedom Index.”[8]

It has long been postulated that societies that promote individual freedoms are thought to be the source of great ideas and invention. Also, societies that respect diversity are more creative and effective problem-solvers. Academics produce troves of research to support the idea. I believe it.
Therefore, when I see the research indicating that our free society is becoming more constrained, I worry. Here’s an older article on the subject that is timely because it has a health care and medicine slant.

“Individual freedom versus collective responsibility: too many rights make a wrong? By Katharine J Looker 1 and Timothy B Hallett1
Individuals might reasonably expect the freedom to make their own decisions regarding their health. However, what happens when an individual's wishes conflict with what is in that individual's best interests? How far should an individual's rights be restricted for his or her own benefit? Similarly, what limitations should be placed on an individual's behavior when that person's wishes go against what is good for the population in general? Here we discuss the issues that can arise when the rights of individuals conflict with individual and population benefits in relation to infectious diseases.”[9]
This article is one example of thousands of issues regarding the balance between individualism and society. America will be navigating the minefield while recovering from the pandemic.


Lowest Crime Rate in the World


The topic here is achieving a low-crime society. With the increasing amount of gun violence and mass shootings in America, the nation is going the wrong way. For a developed country, the US is way down the list from being among the safest.
The crime rate in the United States is 46.73. The violent crime rate in the United States has decreased sharply over the past 25 years. Crimes rates vary greatly between the states, with states with such as Alaska and Tennessee experiencing much higher crime rates than states such as MaineNew Hampshire, and Vermont.
Some of the lowest crime rates in the world can be seen in SwitzerlandDenmarkNorwayJapan, and New Zealand. These countries generally have stricter gun laws that have effective law enforcement. Countries such as Austria do see more petty crimes such as purse snatching or pickpocketing.”[10]
A silver lining from the pandemic:
“Crime rates plummet amid the coronavirus pandemic, but not everyone is safer in their home
Kenny Jacoby, Mike Stucka and Kristine Phillips
USA TODAY”[11]
Is hoarding toilet paper and medical supplies a crime?


[1] “Glaucon; c. 445 BC – 4th century BC) son of Ariston, was an ancient Athenian and the philosopher Plato's older brother. He is primarily known as a major conversant with Socrates in the Republic, and the interlocutor during the Allegory of the Cave. He is also referenced briefly in the beginnings of two dialogues of Plato, the Parmenides and Symposium.”https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glaucon


[5] Major categories of FY 2017 spending included: Healthcare such as Medicare and Medicaid ($1,077B or 27% of spending), Social Security ($939B or 24%), non-defense discretionary spending used to run federal Departments and Agencies ($610B or 15%), Defense Department ($590B or 15%), and interest ($263B or 7%).https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expenditures_in_the_United_States_federal_budget


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