When the odds are 50:50 that Donald Trump will be impeached, that should give rise to anticipation and preparation for what might happen next. The reasons for Trump’s possible demise are not too complex to understand.
First, Trump may be impeached for Constitutional violations that include the Emolument Clause that specifies no conflicts of interest.
Second, there is the charge of Misprision of Fraud for his having covered up about what he knew about Michael Flynn and what he concealed from Mike Pence.
Third, there an aggregation of lying charges that might address his making false statement and allegations as a Federal Government Official that is a crime.
What would be the odds of Trump facing charges if the Congress were not Republican-controlled and if the leaders were not obstructing justice? Trump would most certainly face impeachment and this analyst believes the probability would rise to 80%.
Now, the next iteration of charges become even more serious. They begin with the Treasury and IRS examination of Trump’s business practices and tax obligations.
Fourth, the Treasury, FBI, and National Security Agency have been investigation Trump and his campaign staff and organization. The investigations start with his business relationships that are linked to the Emolument Clause. More, if the IRS determines criminal activity, that would make Trump liable and prosecution could lead to impeachment and possible incarceration.
Fifth, if the investigators establish that there were coordination and collusion by Trump and his associates with the Russians to interfere in American elections, that would lead to charges of Treason where the ultimate penalty is death.
As the prosecution line progresses, the probability of Trump being found guilty increases.
The stakes are high because if Trump falls, so does his administration and appointments including the Vice President. In addition, if members of Congress were also obstructing justice and covering for the President, they will be disqualified from the chain of command protocol. All of that leads to a place where the nation has never been.
What do you do when the President and Republican-Controlled Congress is declared corrupt and illegitimate?
Trump Impeachment Odds Now Even
A UK betting house says odds are 50/50 Trump will finish his first term.
James Grebey April 19, 2017
Donald Trump is the President of the United States. But if oddsmakers are right, there’s a good chance that he won’t hold office for that long. There are many reasons Trump could be impeached or resign before his first term ends.
As of the morning of April 19, Trump’s odds of leaving office before his first term were dead even.