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Friday, March 17, 2017

Nuclearization of Asia

The use of nuclear weapons in war in Asia would lead to annihilation, making the region uninhabitable. The proximity of nation states would be mutually destructive. That is the same conclusion for nuclear de-escalation between the U.S. and Russia. Nuclear weapons should be off the table for all nations.

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has barely gotten his office settled, and he is already talking about the nuclear option in Asia. How does one go from 'Big Oil' Executive to Secretary of State without doing some serious homework? Then again, how does President Trump go from being a family-owned commercial real estate developer to President without having done his homework?

Here is what Tillerson told Fox News (the official news channel of the Trump government regime).
“Nothing has been taken off the table,” he said when asked whether he would rule out nuclearization of the peninsula, during the interview with Fox News. 
Tillerson, who’s called the past 20 years of diplomacy toward North Korea a failure, has said the world needs a new strategy. 
“Let me be very clear: the policy of strategic patience has ended,” said Tillerson in a later press availability in Seoul with South Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-Se. 
"If they elevate the threat of their weapons program to a level we believe requires action that option is on the table," Tillerson also said, adding the U.S. wants to avoid military conflict and hopes other measures convince North Korea to suspend its weapons programs.
(content omitted)
In a tweet, Trump later denied he said more countries should have nuclear weapons. Tillerson is in the middle of a trip to Japan, South Korea, and China, largely to discuss coordinated efforts to halt North Korea’s advancing nuclear and ballistic missile programs. 
He travels to China Friday, after pressuring that government to further curtail the threat from its ally, calling its approach to North Korean aggression “troubling” and “inappropriate.”
Rex Tillerson has a bachelor's degree in Civil Engineering.

Rex Wayne Tillerson is an American energy executive, civil engineer, and diplomat who is the 69th and current United States Secretary of State, serving since February 1, 2017. Wikipedia
Born: March 23, 1952 (age 64 years), Wichita Falls, TXNationality: American Education: University of Texas at Austin (1975), Huntsville High School (1970)
George analysis

Problem Statment: North Korea is a rogue regime that is rapidly accelerating its nuclear weapons development, including firing test missiles toward Japan and landing them in international waters.
  • The Obama-Clinton strategy of negotiating among the principals in the region was too complicated and slow. Instability in the South Korean government further exacerbated the situation. North Korea's nuclear progress escaped the approach that was ineffective.
  • The dependent variable is China. The U.S. and China relationship is central to securing American allies in Asia.
  • China has asserted aggression by creating and arming new island bases in the China Sea that includes contested territories.
Council on Foreign Relations
"The range of possible scenarios underscores some clear lessons that are evident from decades of efforts to curb North Korea's nuclear development and bring the regime into coexistence with its neighbors. The North Korean regime thrives on crisis and gains internal support from crisis situations; for this reason, the regime mobilizes its people in a state of seemingly perpetual crisis. Second, North Korea has a decisive role in setting the terms and tone of diplomacy and confrontation in Northeast Asia. This circumstance has all too often frustrated both US and South Korean diplomatic efforts. Third, both the United States and South Korea increasingly find that it is difficult to disaggregate North Korea-focused diplomacy from attempts to engage China cooperatively to achieve stable outcomes on the Korean peninsula. There is a risk that North Korea's neighbors are playing different games with differing purposes, and there has thus far been relatively little common effort among the United States, South Korea, and China to engage cooperatively with North Korea to achieve even limited goals, many of which might be in the common interest of all parties concerned."

George Solution Elements 

  1. The U.S. and China must strengthen trade and security relationships by developing greater trust and closer ties.
  2. The U.S. must illustrate the consequences from Asian Nations deploying and using nuclear weapons in war in the region. Simply stated it would lead to annihilation making the region uninhabitable. 
The trouble for the U.S. is that the world doesn't pause for Americans to get their government act together. The U.S. is horribly unstable with the present regime. That puts the world at great risk.

Tillerson and Trump put Americans at greater risk

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